France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+148
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-112
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Le Havre
Rennes		7.6%
77.1%		15.3%
+642
-188
+570
-200
2
2		-1.54117-1.50593-1.87751
Lens
Paris Saint-Germain		8.2%
77.5%		14.3%
+489
-155
+450
-180
1
3		-0.49969-0.49248-0.25511
Monaco
Nantes		61.4%
17.3%		21.3%
-116
+379
-125
+320
3
3		-1.38958-1.40985-1.54642
Rennes
Lens		20.8%
55.8%		23.4%
+207
+142
+195
+135
1
1		-1.28735-1.30177-1.45457
Strasbourg
Monaco		11.0%
72.0%		17.0%
+336
-129
+320
-130
0
3		-0.60422-0.61954-0.32885
Clermont Foot
Reims		21.7%
52.2%		26.1%
+340
-109
+315
-115
0
2		-0.66287-0.67433-0.65009
Nantes
Lille		9.5%
73.9%		16.6%
+663
-225
+650
-240
0
2		-0.39082-0.39686-0.30273
Paris Saint-Germain
Toulouse		76.3%
8.7%		15.0%
-140
+381
-150
+375
1
1		-1.45667-1.47333-1.89625
Montpellier
Lyon		8.4%
77.8%		13.8%
+304
-110
+310
-125
4
1		-1.41137-1.45925-2.47825
Lyon
Strasbourg		46.6%
27.9%		25.5%
+179
+150
+185
+145
1
2		-0.94964-0.94384-1.27626
Toulouse
Nantes		33.5%
38.7%		27.8%
+143
+206
+150
+195
2
1		-0.91404-0.94887-1.09374
Le Havre
Montpellier		16.9%
60.9%		22.2%
+460
-137
+410
-125
2
2		-1.34281-1.33003-1.50720
Monaco
Clermont Foot		59.5%
18.2%		22.3%
+140
+205
+125
+210
4
2		-0.90449-0.85477-0.51899
Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain		4.2%
86.1%		9.6%
+727
-250
+710
-275
0
0		-1.61792-1.68077-2.33894
Reims
Marseille		11.5%
69.4%		19.1%
+345
-105
+335
-110
1
2		-0.66637-0.67391-0.36549
Lille
Nice		39.9%
32.1%		28.0%
+194
+152
+170
+155
1
1		-1.28544-1.28942-1.27218
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.86987 
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.88828 
DRatings43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.87618
-0.00631
0.01210

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.