France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+148
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-115
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Troyes		55.6%
20.0%		24.4%
-550
+1356
-575
+1100
1
1		-2.20174-2.19678-1.41145
Montpellier
Reims		22.1%
53.4%		24.5%
+300
-120
+280
-120
3
1		-1.41079-1.38617-1.51045
Rennes
Brest		39.4%
33.3%		27.3%
-140
+390
-145
+370
2
1		-0.56697-0.57476-0.93181
Clermont Foot
Paris Saint-Germain		3.1%
88.6%		8.3%
+896
-443
+900
-425
3
2		-2.35683-2.35272-3.47506
Lyon
Nice		38.9%
34.1%		27.0%
+165
+159
+150
+145
1
3		-0.95664-0.94685-1.07675
Strasbourg
Lorient		25.4%
49.0%		25.6%
+131
+225
+120
+215
1
2		-1.19686-1.19600-0.71423
Angers
Nantes		23.7%
51.5%		24.9%
+550
-187
+485
-200
0
1		-0.44640-0.45462-0.66438
Toulouse
Monaco		10.0%
74.1%		15.9%
+600
-259
+540
-260
2
1		-1.97508-1.90879-2.30649
Lens
Auxerre		56.9%
20.4%		22.7%
+127
+214
+125
+210
3
1		-0.85294-0.85849-0.56337
Marseille
Ajaccio		54.5%
19.5%		26.0%
-225
+640
-285
+715
0
1		-2.03661-2.15004-1.63429
Auxerre
Toulouse		19.4%
58.0%		22.5%
+240
+111
+215
+115
1
1		-1.40981-1.36983-1.49050
Monaco
Rennes		36.7%
35.6%		27.7%
+282
-103
+255
-105
0
2		-0.70055-0.71812-1.03274
Paris Saint-Germain
Strasbourg		74.2%
9.6%		16.1%

-140
+350
1
1		-1.45925-1.82337
Ajaccio
Lens		8.5%
74.8%		16.7%
+1852
-587
+2000
-750
0
3		-0.18077-0.17650-0.29041
Brest
Marseille		12.1%
70.0%		17.9%
+873
-327
+800
-330
2
1		-2.30249-2.24838-2.11544
Reims
Lyon		10.6%
72.1%		17.2%
+341
-145
+320
-150
0
3		-0.54695-0.56261-0.32694
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.86987 
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.88828 
DRatings43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.87618
-0.00631
0.01210

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.