France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+148
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-115
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nice
Montpellier		41.6%
31.8%		26.6%
+197
+143
+185
+140
3
2		-1.11124-1.09919-0.87825
Nantes
Lille		9.5%
74.0%		16.6%
+692
-226
+600
-230
1
2		-0.39174-0.41228-0.30138
Troyes
Angers		26.5%
46.9%		26.5%
+354
-133
+330
-135
1
2		-0.58404-0.60398-0.75690
Paris Saint-Germain
Auxerre		81.7%
6.1%		12.2%

-310
+750
2
1		-0.32907-0.20214
Lens
Lorient		43.3%
30.3%		26.4%
-143
+431
-150
+380
3
1		-0.55365-0.55893-0.83667
Strasbourg
Troyes		37.8%
33.5%		28.7%
-230
+650
-205
+585
1
1		-1.64735-1.59475-1.24733
Angers
Reims		18.6%
57.8%		23.5%
+677
-267
+615
-225
2
2		-1.77892-1.56576-1.44757
Clermont Foot
Brest		20.8%
55.4%		23.8%
+290
+108
+265
+105
1
2		-0.75500-0.76819-0.58974
Toulouse
Nice		19.2%
58.0%		22.8%
+264
+101
+265
-110
0
0		-1.39308-1.42341-1.47920
Rennes
Ajaccio		47.4%
24.4%		28.2%
-223
+725
-230
+715
5
0		-0.39908-0.39515-0.74608
Marseille
Lille		27.7%
45.4%		26.9%
+161
+177
+155
+165
1
2		-1.04358-1.02449-0.79008
Montpellier
Nantes		27.7%
46.6%		25.6%
+255
+119
+240
+110
3
0		-1.28674-1.27447-1.28258
Monaco
Lyon		29.2%
45.7%		25.1%
+178
+140
+170
+135
1
3		-0.89789-0.90231-0.78285
Angers
Marseille		7.7%
78.0%		14.4%
+1729
-590
+1600
-700
1
3		-0.17531-0.18372-0.24903
Lille
Monaco		21.0%
55.6%		23.4%
+143
+194
+135
+190
0
0		-1.33598-1.32795-1.45124
Nantes
Toulouse		19.7%
57.1%		23.2%
+223
+125
+205
+120
0
0		-1.33632-1.35969-1.46141
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.93405 
Sportsbooks32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.95241 
DRatings32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.99991
-0.06586
-0.04750

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/24/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (10-0-2, 32 pts)23.73.76.777.796.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (8-2-2, 26 pts)17.88.18.061.52.6%71.1%21.3%0.0%
3Marseille (7-3-2, 23 pts)16.29.68.156.90.3%40.7%37.6%0.0%
4Lille (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.07.910.158.00.6%49.4%31.1%0.0%
5Nice (5-2-5, 20 pts)13.19.411.450.80.0%11.7%28.5%0.1%
6Lyon (5-3-4, 19 pts)14.09.910.152.10.0%13.0%31.1%0.0%
7Auxerre (6-5-1, 19 pts)11.315.96.740.70.0%0.3%1.6%7.9%
8Reims (5-4-3, 18 pts)11.413.39.343.40.0%1.5%5.0%2.3%
9Lens (4-3-5, 17 pts)13.29.611.250.80.0%9.9%26.1%0.2%
10Toulouse (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.613.39.143.90.0%1.5%6.5%3.4%
11Strasbourg (3-5-4, 13 pts)10.713.210.242.20.0%0.1%3.8%6.1%
12Brest (4-7-1, 13 pts)11.315.67.141.00.0%0.2%2.2%8.4%
13Saint-Etienne (4-7-1, 13 pts)10.216.87.037.70.0%0.2%0.3%20.5%
14Le Havre (4-8-0, 12 pts)10.017.96.136.20.0%0.0%0.2%27.7%
15Rennes (3-7-2, 11 pts)11.414.38.342.50.0%0.4%3.6%5.8%
16Nantes (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.014.910.237.10.0%0.0%0.9%22.7%
17Angers (2-6-4, 10 pts)7.716.310.033.10.0%0.0%0.2%49.8%
18Montpellier (2-9-1, 7 pts)8.917.97.234.00.0%0.0%0.0%45.1%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.