France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+148
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-115
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Troyes
Rennes		10.4%
72.0%		17.6%
+1373
-515
+1175
-550
0
4		-0.20361-0.21850-0.32813
Auxerre
Brest		19.6%
58.3%		22.1%
+366
-108
+330
+100
0
1		-0.68130-0.72375-0.53989
Lorient
Montpellier		35.4%
37.4%		27.1%
+320
-106
+310
-120
1
1		-1.32904-1.38617-1.30401
Lyon
Clermont Foot		56.6%
20.3%		23.1%
-103
+286
-120
+300
1
2		-1.37650-1.43687-1.59544
Ajaccio
Paris Saint-Germain		3.0%
87.9%		9.1%

+1700
-910
0
5		-0.15475-0.12936
Nice
Strasbourg		32.0%
40.2%		27.8%
+200
+156
+195
+140
0
2		-0.95792-0.92402-0.91247
Reims
Lens		11.5%
70.1%		18.4%
+472
-165
+475
-195
1
2		-0.48854-0.46498-0.35455
Paris Saint-Germain
Troyes		82.0%
5.7%		12.3%

-400
+900
3
1		-0.27338-0.19855
Montpellier
Lyon		8.4%
77.8%		13.8%
+392
-141
+375
-150
4
5		-0.55670-0.56103-0.25062
Strasbourg
Nantes		35.3%
36.1%		28.6%
+184
+182
+160
+185
2
0		-1.06285-1.00709-1.04032
Brest
Lorient		23.6%
52.4%		24.1%
+201
+163
+200
+135
1
2		-0.99163-0.90604-0.64691
Clermont Foot
Auxerre		27.6%
45.7%		26.7%
+216
+146
+210
+135
1
1		-1.22173-1.24382-1.32081
Toulouse
Ajaccio		33.5%
35.9%		30.5%
+104
+296
+100
+280
0
0		-1.29106-1.29000-1.18646
Monaco
Angers		64.7%
15.3%		20.0%
-166
+465
-175
+460
2
1		-0.49944-0.48379-0.43479
Marseille
Lens		26.3%
48.1%		25.6%
+206
+147
+190
+140
1
2		-0.92143-0.92553-0.73216
Lille
Reims		45.0%
27.1%		27.8%
-100
+277
+105
+245
0
1		-1.34788-1.28870-1.30505
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.61194 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.61990 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.59738
0.01456
0.02252

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/24/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (10-0-2, 32 pts)23.73.76.777.796.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (8-2-2, 26 pts)17.88.18.061.52.6%71.1%21.3%0.0%
3Marseille (7-3-2, 23 pts)16.29.68.156.90.3%40.7%37.6%0.0%
4Lille (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.07.910.158.00.6%49.4%31.1%0.0%
5Nice (5-2-5, 20 pts)13.19.411.450.80.0%11.7%28.5%0.1%
6Lyon (5-3-4, 19 pts)14.09.910.152.10.0%13.0%31.1%0.0%
7Auxerre (6-5-1, 19 pts)11.315.96.740.70.0%0.3%1.6%7.9%
8Reims (5-4-3, 18 pts)11.413.39.343.40.0%1.5%5.0%2.3%
9Lens (4-3-5, 17 pts)13.29.611.250.80.0%9.9%26.1%0.2%
10Toulouse (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.613.39.143.90.0%1.5%6.5%3.4%
11Strasbourg (3-5-4, 13 pts)10.713.210.242.20.0%0.1%3.8%6.1%
12Brest (4-7-1, 13 pts)11.315.67.141.00.0%0.2%2.2%8.4%
13Saint-Etienne (4-7-1, 13 pts)10.216.87.037.70.0%0.2%0.3%20.5%
14Le Havre (4-8-0, 12 pts)10.017.96.136.20.0%0.0%0.2%27.7%
15Rennes (3-7-2, 11 pts)11.414.38.342.50.0%0.4%3.6%5.8%
16Nantes (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.014.910.237.10.0%0.0%0.9%22.7%
17Angers (2-6-4, 10 pts)7.716.310.033.10.0%0.0%0.2%49.8%
18Montpellier (2-9-1, 7 pts)8.917.97.234.00.0%0.0%0.0%45.1%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.