France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+148
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-115
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Monaco
Nantes		55.6%
21.1%		23.3%
-103
+300
-105
+280
2
2		-1.38422-1.34289-1.45861
Brest
Reims		27.4%
45.9%		26.7%
+471
-152
+435
-160
1
1		-1.43297-1.43729-1.31871
Toulouse
Montpellier		28.2%
46.3%		25.4%
+279
+101
+265
+100
2
1		-1.35325-1.34155-1.26546
Auxerre
Ajaccio		26.5%
45.1%		28.4%
+200
+189
+185
+185
3
0		-1.13694-1.09862-1.32916
Rennes
Lyon		19.5%
58.3%		22.1%
+231
+128
+225
+120
1
3		-0.84248-0.83924-0.53875
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice		68.8%
12.6%		18.6%

-115
+310
2
0		-0.67360-0.37413
Lille
Angers		56.8%
19.7%		23.5%
-254
+750
-260
+675
0
1		-2.16535-2.09964-1.62567
Strasbourg
Lens		13.3%
67.7%		19.0%
+573
-186
+550
-185
1
2		-0.45612-0.47239-0.39045
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		8.8%
76.6%		14.6%

+550
-240
1
0		-1.92080-2.43281
Strasbourg
Monaco		11.0%
72.1%		16.9%
+520
-172
+490
-185
3
4		-0.47454-0.48204-0.32648
Nice
Angers		46.3%
27.4%		26.3%
-145
+482
-145
+470
1
1		-1.38470-1.31476-1.33712
Toulouse
Brest		22.6%
53.7%		23.6%
+165
+177
+160
+165
1
3		-1.03950-1.02510-0.62118
Reims
Nantes		27.0%
45.4%		27.6%
+118
+263
+125
+225
3
0		-0.79902-0.86034-1.30782
Lorient
Lille		14.9%
64.5%		20.6%
+700
-255
+665
-270
1
3		-0.35250-0.36475-0.43886
Lens
Rennes		32.3%
40.5%		27.2%
+163
+208
+155
+185
1
0		-0.98618-0.98556-1.13088
Troyes
Auxerre		24.3%
50.1%		25.5%
+360
-105
+335
-115
0
1		-0.68025-0.67495-0.69057
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/24/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (10-0-2, 32 pts)23.73.76.777.796.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (8-2-2, 26 pts)17.88.18.061.52.6%71.1%21.3%0.0%
3Marseille (7-3-2, 23 pts)16.29.68.156.90.3%40.7%37.6%0.0%
4Lille (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.07.910.158.00.6%49.4%31.1%0.0%
5Nice (5-2-5, 20 pts)13.19.411.450.80.0%11.7%28.5%0.1%
6Lyon (5-3-4, 19 pts)14.09.910.152.10.0%13.0%31.1%0.0%
7Auxerre (6-5-1, 19 pts)11.315.96.740.70.0%0.3%1.6%7.9%
8Reims (5-4-3, 18 pts)11.413.39.343.40.0%1.5%5.0%2.3%
9Lens (4-3-5, 17 pts)13.29.611.250.80.0%9.9%26.1%0.2%
10Toulouse (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.613.39.143.90.0%1.5%6.5%3.4%
11Strasbourg (3-5-4, 13 pts)10.713.210.242.20.0%0.1%3.8%6.1%
12Brest (4-7-1, 13 pts)11.315.67.141.00.0%0.2%2.2%8.4%
13Saint-Etienne (4-7-1, 13 pts)10.216.87.037.70.0%0.2%0.3%20.5%
14Le Havre (4-8-0, 12 pts)10.017.96.136.20.0%0.0%0.2%27.7%
15Rennes (3-7-2, 11 pts)11.414.38.342.50.0%0.4%3.6%5.8%
16Nantes (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.014.910.237.10.0%0.0%0.9%22.7%
17Angers (2-6-4, 10 pts)7.716.310.033.10.0%0.0%0.2%49.8%
18Montpellier (2-9-1, 7 pts)8.917.97.234.00.0%0.0%0.0%45.1%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.