France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+148
+196

1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-115
u2½+103

Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Montpellier
Marseille		9.2%
75.6%		15.3%

+450
-245
1
1		-1.56676-1.87941
Montpellier
Marseille		9.2%
75.6%		15.3%
+536
-184
+490
-180
1
1		-1.53109-1.51154-1.87941
Marseille
Reims		47.4%
25.6%		27.0%
+141
+209
+140
+200
2
1		-0.90684-0.92284-0.74689
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain		6.3%
81.1%		12.6%

+465
-190
2
0		-1.78005-2.76510
Brest
Troyes		35.6%
36.0%		28.4%
+148
+213
+145
+200
2
2		-1.22997-1.22670-1.26054
Auxerre
Strasbourg		17.9%
60.0%		22.1%
+334
+103
+310
+100
0
2		-0.73287-0.74345-0.51021
Lorient
Nice		21.5%
54.6%		23.9%
+485
-151
+460
-160
1
1		-1.40854-1.41014-1.43246
Clermont Foot
Montpellier		26.0%
48.3%		25.7%
+380
-115
+360
-125
1
2		-0.64274-0.63726-0.72817
Monaco
Ajaccio		60.5%
16.5%		23.0%
-164
+563
-160
+530
2
0		-0.50413-0.52211-0.50312
Angers
Lens		7.6%
78.6%		13.8%
+1208
-418
+1200
-500
0
3		-0.23846-0.23408-0.24067
Lille
Toulouse		49.5%
24.9%		25.7%
+104
+260
+100
+260
2
0		-0.73704-0.74360-0.70362
Nantes
Lyon		9.9%
74.2%		15.9%
+462
-158
+460
-175
1
1		-1.46499-1.49593-1.83929
Strasbourg
Marseille		13.4%
67.0%		19.6%
+759
-239
+700
-250
2
2		-1.61929-1.60674-1.62933
Reims
Monaco		9.5%
74.1%		16.4%
+315
-108
+320
-120
1
0		-1.44286-1.48408-2.35841
Montpellier
Ajaccio		28.2%
43.5%		28.2%
+145
+239
+135
+240
1
0		-0.92150-0.90084-1.26415
Nice
Nantes		36.9%
34.8%		28.3%
+169
+194
+155
+195
2
2		-1.18725-1.19485-1.26206
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/24/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (10-0-2, 32 pts)23.73.76.777.796.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (8-2-2, 26 pts)17.88.18.061.52.6%71.1%21.3%0.0%
3Marseille (7-3-2, 23 pts)16.29.68.156.90.3%40.7%37.6%0.0%
4Lille (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.07.910.158.00.6%49.4%31.1%0.0%
5Nice (5-2-5, 20 pts)13.19.411.450.80.0%11.7%28.5%0.1%
6Lyon (5-3-4, 19 pts)14.09.910.152.10.0%13.0%31.1%0.0%
7Auxerre (6-5-1, 19 pts)11.315.96.740.70.0%0.3%1.6%7.9%
8Reims (5-4-3, 18 pts)11.413.39.343.40.0%1.5%5.0%2.3%
9Lens (4-3-5, 17 pts)13.29.611.250.80.0%9.9%26.1%0.2%
10Toulouse (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.613.39.143.90.0%1.5%6.5%3.4%
11Strasbourg (3-5-4, 13 pts)10.713.210.242.20.0%0.1%3.8%6.1%
12Brest (4-7-1, 13 pts)11.315.67.141.00.0%0.2%2.2%8.4%
13Saint-Etienne (4-7-1, 13 pts)10.216.87.037.70.0%0.2%0.3%20.5%
14Le Havre (4-8-0, 12 pts)10.017.96.136.20.0%0.0%0.2%27.7%
15Rennes (3-7-2, 11 pts)11.414.38.342.50.0%0.4%3.6%5.8%
16Nantes (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.014.910.237.10.0%0.0%0.9%22.7%
17Angers (2-6-4, 10 pts)7.716.310.033.10.0%0.0%0.2%49.8%
18Montpellier (2-9-1, 7 pts)8.917.97.234.00.0%0.0%0.0%45.1%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.