France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+148
+196
+145
+190
1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-112
u2½+103
o2½-115
u2½-105
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lens
Lille		23.1%
52.4%		24.5%
+176
+172
+170
+155
0
1		-0.99796-0.98714-0.64653
Nantes
Rennes		18.4%
58.9%		22.6%
+575
-195
+550
-200
0
3		-0.44393-0.45463-0.52868
Lorient
Brest		28.8%
45.3%		25.9%
+228
+131
+215
+125
2
1		-1.21106-1.19786-1.24646
Troyes
Nice		18.1%
58.8%		23.1%
+370
-115
+350
-120
2
3		-0.63646-0.65815-0.53023
Strasbourg
Angers		38.1%
34.0%		27.9%
+168
+178
+160
+170
3
2		-1.01159-1.00761-0.96585
Auxerre
Clermont Foot		20.6%
55.3%		24.1%
+260
+128
+230
+125
1
2		-0.82545-0.86022-0.59218
Monaco
Montpellier		43.9%
30.5%		25.6%
-114
+310
-105
+255
2
0		-0.65009-0.72128-0.82367
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims		73.2%
9.7%		17.1%
-259
+793
-300
+725
0
0		-1.73761-1.77137-1.76849
Ajaccio
Marseille		8.8%
73.4%		17.8%
+821
-190
+600
-195
2
1		-2.18756-1.99834-2.43121
Toulouse
Lyon		10.6%
73.2%		16.2%
+564
-220
+490
-205
1
1		-1.67863-1.60899-1.81960
Lyon
Lens		38.6%
34.7%		26.7%
+200
+138
+205
+125
0
1		-0.89275-0.85982-1.05881
Nantes
Monaco		15.2%
64.6%		20.1%
+641
-235
+525
-215
1
4		-0.38655-0.43155-0.43688
Montpellier
Toulouse		29.9%
44.0%		26.0%
+280
-101
+255
+100
2
4		-0.71392-0.74381-0.81987
Reims
Troyes		27.9%
43.5%		28.5%
+175
+176
+175
+165
2
2		-1.24365-1.21527-1.25446
Brest
Auxerre		35.8%
36.7%		27.4%
+138
+218
+125
+225
1
1		-1.25211-1.25836-1.29408
Lille
Lorient		39.2%
32.8%		28.0%
+130
+215
+145
+175
1
2		-1.18078-1.06369-1.11587
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/24/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (10-0-2, 32 pts)23.73.76.777.796.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (8-2-2, 26 pts)17.88.18.061.52.6%71.1%21.3%0.0%
3Marseille (7-3-2, 23 pts)16.29.68.156.90.3%40.7%37.6%0.0%
4Lille (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.07.910.158.00.6%49.4%31.1%0.0%
5Nice (5-2-5, 20 pts)13.19.411.450.80.0%11.7%28.5%0.1%
6Lyon (5-3-4, 19 pts)14.09.910.152.10.0%13.0%31.1%0.0%
7Auxerre (6-5-1, 19 pts)11.315.96.740.70.0%0.3%1.6%7.9%
8Reims (5-4-3, 18 pts)11.413.39.343.40.0%1.5%5.0%2.3%
9Lens (4-3-5, 17 pts)13.29.611.250.80.0%9.9%26.1%0.2%
10Toulouse (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.613.39.143.90.0%1.5%6.5%3.4%
11Strasbourg (3-5-4, 13 pts)10.713.210.242.20.0%0.1%3.8%6.1%
12Brest (4-7-1, 13 pts)11.315.67.141.00.0%0.2%2.2%8.4%
13Saint-Etienne (4-7-1, 13 pts)10.216.87.037.70.0%0.2%0.3%20.5%
14Le Havre (4-8-0, 12 pts)10.017.96.136.20.0%0.0%0.2%27.7%
15Rennes (3-7-2, 11 pts)11.414.38.342.50.0%0.4%3.6%5.8%
16Nantes (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.014.910.237.10.0%0.0%0.9%22.7%
17Angers (2-6-4, 10 pts)7.716.310.033.10.0%0.0%0.2%49.8%
18Montpellier (2-9-1, 7 pts)8.917.97.234.00.0%0.0%0.0%45.1%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.