France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lens
Reims 		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+148
+196
+145
+190
1.30
1.04		2.34
o2½-112
u2½+103
o2½-115
u2½-105
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Lens		43.2%
30.0%		26.7%
+225
+130
+215
+125
1
2		-0.85372-0.86140-1.20241
Strasbourg
Auxerre		45.3%
28.3%		26.4%
+117
+255
+120
+230
0
1		-1.29011-1.24434-1.26065
Lille
Ajaccio		60.4%
15.4%		24.2%
+146
+216
+130
+235
3
1		-0.93693-0.88242-0.50481
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		47.4%
25.8%		26.7%
-271
+700
-300
+700
7
1		-0.34303-0.33986-0.74625
Ajaccio
Rennes		6.3%
78.9%		14.8%
+633
-195
+600
-205
1
2		-0.45110-0.44903-0.23701
Auxerre
Montpellier		15.3%
64.7%		20.0%
+310
-103
+300
-110
2
1		-1.43376-1.43658-1.87653
Lorient
Toulouse		21.3%
54.8%		23.9%
+345
-114
+315
-115
2
2		-1.33564-1.34335-1.43301
Nice
Clermont Foot		40.6%
31.2%		28.2%
+113
+275
+110
+255
0
1		-1.34577-1.31763-1.16510
Brest
Angers		30.2%
43.1%		26.7%
+215
+147
+205
+135
3
1		-1.16629-1.16575-1.19796
Reims
Strasbourg		22.2%
51.8%		25.9%
+420
-127
+400
-135
1
1		-1.32614-1.33184-1.34931
Nantes
Marseille		19.1%
57.2%		23.7%
+450
-152
+450
-165
1
2		-0.53404-0.52101-0.55781
Lens
Monaco		12.9%
69.0%		18.1%
+340
-119
+330
-125
4
1		-1.50085-1.50860-2.04841
Troyes
Lyon		9.6%
74.0%		16.4%
+841
-325
+840
-340
1
4		-0.29877-0.30806-0.30106
Marseille
Brest		39.9%
32.6%		27.5%
-103
+298
-105
+275
1
1		-1.36630-1.34623-1.28920
Strasbourg
Nice		25.8%
48.7%		25.6%
+248
+125
+240
+125
1
1		-1.25980-1.21295-1.36340
Toulouse
Troyes		29.0%
43.6%		27.4%
+151
+201
+150
+185
3
0		-0.94814-0.96880-1.23850
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/24/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (10-0-2, 32 pts)23.73.76.777.796.5%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Monaco (8-2-2, 26 pts)17.88.18.061.52.6%71.1%21.3%0.0%
3Marseille (7-3-2, 23 pts)16.29.68.156.90.3%40.7%37.6%0.0%
4Lille (6-2-4, 22 pts)16.07.910.158.00.6%49.4%31.1%0.0%
5Nice (5-2-5, 20 pts)13.19.411.450.80.0%11.7%28.5%0.1%
6Lyon (5-3-4, 19 pts)14.09.910.152.10.0%13.0%31.1%0.0%
7Auxerre (6-5-1, 19 pts)11.315.96.740.70.0%0.3%1.6%7.9%
8Reims (5-4-3, 18 pts)11.413.39.343.40.0%1.5%5.0%2.3%
9Lens (4-3-5, 17 pts)13.29.611.250.80.0%9.9%26.1%0.2%
10Toulouse (4-5-3, 15 pts)11.613.39.143.90.0%1.5%6.5%3.4%
11Strasbourg (3-5-4, 13 pts)10.713.210.242.20.0%0.1%3.8%6.1%
12Brest (4-7-1, 13 pts)11.315.67.141.00.0%0.2%2.2%8.4%
13Saint-Etienne (4-7-1, 13 pts)10.216.87.037.70.0%0.2%0.3%20.5%
14Le Havre (4-8-0, 12 pts)10.017.96.136.20.0%0.0%0.2%27.7%
15Rennes (3-7-2, 11 pts)11.414.38.342.50.0%0.4%3.6%5.8%
16Nantes (2-6-4, 10 pts)9.014.910.237.10.0%0.0%0.9%22.7%
17Angers (2-6-4, 10 pts)7.716.310.033.10.0%0.0%0.2%49.8%
18Montpellier (2-9-1, 7 pts)8.917.97.234.00.0%0.0%0.0%45.1%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.