France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Lille 		17.6%
60.4%		22.1%
+340
-110
+325
-115
0.90
1.88		2.78
o2½-110
u2½+101
o2½-115
u2½-105
Angers
Auxerre 		26.7%
47.5%		25.8%
+368
-124
+360
-130
1.07
1.50		2.57
o2¾-102
u2¾-115
o2½-130
u2½+110
Le Havre
Nantes 		19.1%
56.0%		24.9%
+408
-113
+400
-120
0.82
1.61		2.43
o2-136
u2¼-122
o2-135
u2+115
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+358
-123
+345
-130
0.93
1.68		2.61
o2½-130
u2¾-118
o2½-130
u2½+110
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Marseille
Reims		43.6%
28.5%		27.9%
-113
+313
-105
+290
0
1		-1.44253-1.38894-1.25449
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice		69.5%
12.1%		18.4%
+228
+114
+220
+110
2
1		-1.22254-1.21369-0.36366
Lyon
Clermont Foot		47.3%
26.8%		25.9%
-159
+397
-170
+425
1
0		-0.52650-0.51395-0.74902
Monaco
Montpellier		37.2%
36.3%		26.6%
-135
+323
-135
+300
2
0		-0.58218-0.60475-0.98940
Metz
Strasbourg		16.5%
61.7%		21.8%
+248
+114
+225
+115
1
2		-0.79122-0.81482-0.48319
Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain		4.1%
86.5%		9.3%
+650
-260
+610
-275
3
1		-2.04577-2.00999-3.18230
Lille
Nantes		38.2%
33.2%		28.6%
-131
+405
-125
+340
2
1		-0.59178-0.63609-0.96184
Lens
Rennes		24.9%
49.9%		25.2%
+214
+128
+215
+125
1
1		-1.31923-1.28884-1.37999
Lorient
Marseille		10.6%
72.3%		17.1%
+550
-200
+530
-215
1
3		-0.43604-0.43034-0.32435
Le Havre
Nice		14.1%
64.1%		21.8%
+548
-174
+505
-180
0
1		-0.48115-0.48977-0.44399
Reims
Brest		23.9%
50.3%		25.8%
+460
-162
+435
-160
1
1		-1.47495-1.43729-1.35631
Lyon
Lille		20.7%
56.1%		23.2%
+247
+109
+240
+105
4
3		-1.27222-1.27465-1.57697
Nantes
Brest		26.7%
47.4%		25.9%
+450
-142
+425
-145
0
0		-1.35642-1.35957-1.35100
Rennes
Metz		49.7%
24.6%		25.7%
-101
+295
-105
+285
3
2		-0.71592-0.71756-0.69969
Clermont Foot
Monaco		9.5%
74.6%		15.9%
+719
-310
+710
-325
1
4		-0.31345-0.31653-0.29259
Strasbourg
Le Havre		39.6%
31.2%		29.2%
+205
+161
+195
+155
1
3		-0.97328-0.98355-1.16315
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15566 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15491 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.12557
0.03009
0.02934

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.