France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Lille 		17.6%
60.4%		22.1%
+318
-108
+325
-115
0.90
1.88		2.78
o2½-110
u2½+101
o2½-115
u2½-105
Angers
Auxerre 		26.7%
47.5%		25.8%
+390
-132
+360
-130
1.07
1.50		2.57
o2¾-102
u2¾-115
o2½-130
u2½+110
Le Havre
Nantes 		19.1%
56.0%		24.9%
+408
-113
+400
-120
0.82
1.61		2.43
o2-136
u2¼-122
o2-135
u2+115
Strasbourg
Nice 		20.8%
55.0%		24.2%
+358
-123
+345
-130
0.93
1.68		2.61
o2½-130
u2¾-118
o2½-130
u2½+110
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Lens		15.7%
63.7%		20.6%
+600
-223
+570
-220
0
2		-0.39940-0.42089-0.45039
Montpellier
Toulouse		32.9%
40.8%		26.3%
+258
+105
+250
+100
2
1		-1.29861-1.30383-1.11069
Lens
Marseille		18.6%
59.0%		22.4%
+226
+125
+215
+125
1
2		-0.83949-0.86140-0.52726
Monaco
Lyon		31.7%
42.7%		25.6%
+186
+140
+175
+130
2
3		-0.89104-0.88020-0.85043
Brest
Rennes		20.0%
57.2%		22.8%
+261
+120
+235
+125
5
4		-1.31334-1.25836-1.61099
Toulouse
Lorient		28.3%
46.0%		25.8%
+201
+150
+170
+160
2
1		-1.11893-1.04120-1.26397
Reims
Clermont Foot		35.3%
34.3%		30.3%
+110
+249
+110
+235
1
4		-1.27751-1.26008-1.06921
Nice
Strasbourg		27.9%
45.6%		26.5%
+125
+257
+125
+235
3
1		-0.83374-0.86034-1.27654
Lille
Metz		55.9%
19.9%		24.2%
-150
+462
-160
+465
2
1		-0.53839-0.53631-0.58209
Le Havre
Paris Saint-Germain		3.0%
88.5%		8.6%
+885
-311
+850
-320
3
3		-1.78082-1.73738-2.45795
Nantes
Montpellier		25.7%
49.2%		25.1%
+280
+107
+275
+100
1
1		-1.31476-1.31420-1.38334
Nice
Marseille		14.1%
65.7%		20.2%
+261
+125
+255
+125
2
2		-1.22237-1.21190-1.60092
Lille
Monaco		27.6%
46.7%		25.7%
+198
+142
+185
+140
0
1		-0.89911-0.92352-0.76093
Paris Saint-Germain
Lorient		75.6%
9.0%		15.4%
-240
+631
-250
+605
4
1		-0.38128-0.38202-0.28007
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		6.7%
80.7%		12.5%
+415
-168
+425
-175
1
4		-0.50071-0.49989-0.21406
Marseille
Toulouse		48.3%
26.2%		25.5%
+174
+173
+165
+175
2
2		-1.23829-1.22622-1.36814
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15566 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15491 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.12557
0.03009
0.02934

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.