France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 30, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Saint-Etienne
Rennes 		15.7%
64.3%		20.0%
+636
-230

0.93
2.10		3.03
o2¾-118
u3-132

Strasbourg
Brest 		26.7%
47.8%		25.6%
+255
+105

1.07
1.53		2.60
o2½-112
u2½-108

Nantes
Paris Saint-Germain 		5.6%
82.5%		11.9%


0.62
2.80		3.42


Games for Nov 29, 2024
Games for Dec 1, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Rennes
Lille 		17.6%
60.4%		22.1%
+352
-108
+315
-110
2.78
o2¼-118
u2½-128
o2½-105
u2½-115
2nd H
67:19		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lyon
Reims		43.0%
30.1%		26.9%
+122
+225
+125
+195
1
1		-1.35608-1.37062-1.31371
Montpellier
Saint-Etienne		30.9%
43.1%		25.9%
+213
+140
+225
+130
0
1		-0.90530-0.88187-0.84086
Marseille
Lens		29.5%
43.8%		26.7%
+228
+134
+220
+130
3
1		-1.20561-1.21224-1.22214
Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain		5.8%
82.5%		11.7%
+700
-256
+700
-290
0
3		-0.35895-0.34545-0.19198
Brest
Monaco		13.4%
68.5%		18.1%
+500
-168
+525
-190
2
3		-0.49279-0.47209-0.37873
Saint-Etienne
Lyon		13.0%
69.2%		17.8%
+765
-290
+740
-310
0
1		-0.32180-0.32893-0.36776
Reims
Le Havre		28.0%
42.6%		29.4%
+130
+253
+125
+245
3
0		-0.86303-0.86140-1.27322
Toulouse
Rennes		21.6%
55.0%		23.4%
+223
+134
+230
+125
2
0		-1.19892-1.24320-1.53192
Brest
Montpellier		28.1%
46.5%		25.4%
+156
+193
+150
+215
1
3		-1.10936-1.16767-0.76552
Lille
Nice		36.0%
34.7%		29.3%
+229
+139
+210
+140
2
2		-1.21898-1.21362-1.22618
Paris Saint-Germain
Angers		77.9%
7.9%		14.2%
-365
+1000
-350
+900
4
2		-0.27736-0.30171-0.24938
Nantes
Lens		17.7%
60.0%		22.3%
+500
-154
+475
-160
2
3		-0.52933-0.53664-0.51089
Monaco
Strasbourg		43.9%
30.3%		25.8%
-101
+280
+100
+255
3
1		-0.71658-0.74381-0.82244
Auxerre
Marseille		8.8%
75.9%		15.2%
+680
-216
+625
-250
3
1		-2.06578-2.03004-2.42792
Marseille
Nantes		39.9%
32.3%		27.8%
+115
+259
+105
+280
2
1		-0.79443-0.76613-0.91834
Rennes
Auxerre		46.6%
27.5%		25.9%
+111
+250
+115
+230
0
4		-1.28226-1.24258-1.29197
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15566 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.15491 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.12557
0.03009
0.02934

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-0-2, 29 pts)23.13.97.076.295.3%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Monaco (7-2-2, 23 pts)17.28.68.259.83.5%62.6%26.2%0.0%
3Marseille (6-3-2, 20 pts)15.79.98.455.40.2%36.9%31.6%0.0%
4Lille (5-2-4, 19 pts)15.48.310.356.50.7%43.5%30.3%0.0%
5Lyon (5-3-3, 18 pts)14.410.29.552.60.2%20.2%30.0%0.0%
6Nice (4-2-5, 17 pts)12.69.711.849.50.1%11.8%23.1%0.1%
7Reims (5-4-2, 17 pts)11.613.98.643.30.0%1.3%5.9%3.7%
8Lens (4-2-5, 17 pts)13.49.111.551.80.0%18.0%26.4%0.3%
9Auxerre (5-5-1, 16 pts)10.616.37.139.00.0%0.1%1.3%15.5%
10Toulouse (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.812.89.444.80.0%2.0%8.1%2.3%
11Strasbourg (3-4-4, 13 pts)11.012.510.543.50.0%1.2%5.3%4.1%
12Brest (4-6-1, 13 pts)11.615.07.442.20.0%0.8%3.3%6.8%
13Rennes (3-6-2, 11 pts)11.613.88.643.50.0%1.2%5.2%2.9%
14Nantes (2-5-4, 10 pts)9.414.210.438.50.0%0.2%1.8%16.3%
15Angers (2-5-4, 10 pts)8.215.510.335.00.0%0.1%0.1%36.7%
16Saint-Etienne (3-7-1, 10 pts)9.517.27.335.70.0%0.1%0.4%34.7%
17Le Havre (3-8-0, 9 pts)9.518.06.435.00.0%0.1%0.3%39.2%
18Montpellier (2-8-1, 7 pts)9.417.17.535.70.0%0.1%0.5%37.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.