German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mainz 05
Holstein Kiel
43.6%
31.7%
24.7%
+130
+218
+125
+215
1.57
1.30
2.87
o2¾-104
u2¾-112
o2½-130
u2½+115
FC St. Pauli
Borussia Monchengladbach
14.6%
67.8%
17.6%
+355
-123
+350
-125
1.05
2.44
3.49
o2¾+100
u2¾-117
o2½-125
u2½+110
Games for Nov 23, 2024
Games for Nov 25, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Hoffenheim
Mainz 05
27.5%
48.8%
23.7%
+334
-109
+285
-115
1
4
-0.64097-0.66937-0.71836
FC Heidenheim
VfL Bochum
24.1%
52.3%
23.6%
+251
+113
+238
+110
1
1
-1.34059-1.32957-1.44443
Dortmund
Borussia Monchengladbach
40.2%
35.3%
24.5%
+107
+257
+110
+255
2
1
-0.74066-0.75942-0.91108
FC Koln
Bayern Munich
4.4%
87.1%
8.6%
+1100
-414
+1050
-470
0
2
-0.23822-0.24044-0.13848
Wolfsburg
RB Leipzig
11.2%
72.5%
16.2%
+971
-281
+760
-305
0
3
-0.29351-0.32889-0.32125
Union Berlin
Augsburg
35.4%
37.7%
26.9%
+270
+112
+255
+110
0
2
-0.77714-0.78858-0.97647
Borussia Monchengladbach
Wolfsburg
36.3%
37.9%
25.8%
+279
-103
+265
-105
3
1
-1.35965-1.33964-1.01399
Augsburg
Hoffenheim
17.2%
63.4%
19.4%
+192
+130
+195
+120
1
3
-0.85386-0.83409-0.45567
VfB Stuttgart
Dortmund
8.5%
78.5%
13.0%
+250
+104
+245
+100
1
0
-1.26227-1.27447-2.46605
Bayern Munich
FC Heidenheim
83.6%
5.7%
10.7%
-264
+610
-280
+620
2
3
-1.98967-2.02110-2.86857
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Union Berlin
31.9%
42.1%
25.9%
-147
+460
-155
+460
1
0
-0.54547-0.52770-1.14225
Darmstadt 98
Mainz 05
17.5%
62.8%
19.7%
+675
-236
+670
-250
0
4
-0.38421-0.38161-0.46533
RB Leipzig
Freiburg
38.6%
35.0%
26.4%
-171
+475
-180
+445
4
1
-0.48204-0.48464-0.95280
VfL Bochum
FC Koln
17.6%
62.6%
19.7%
+218
+130
+205
+128
1
2
-0.85958-0.87120-0.46781
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt
14.8%
67.5%
17.7%
+375
-123
+330
-125
1
1
-1.38890-1.38502-1.72952
Darmstadt 98
VfL Bochum
27.0%
49.3%
23.7%
+545
-202
+580
-210
2
2
-1.61687-1.56710-1.44041
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.62716 
Sportsbooks65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.62499 
DRatings65-1-0 (0.833)0-0.59426
0.03290
0.03073

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.