German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Holstein Kiel
FC St. Pauli
23.5%
54.6%
21.9%
+299
-106

1.21
1.96
3.17
o2½-117
u2½+102

Games for Nov 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
FC Koln
Freiburg
16.6%
63.8%
19.6%
+323
-108
+335
-115
0
2
-0.67678-0.65666-0.44904
Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig
14.2%
68.1%
17.7%
+765
-297
+725
-285
1
3
-0.31696-0.33553-0.38469
Union Berlin
VfL Bochum
45.8%
28.8%
25.4%
+185
+165
+170
+165
0
3
-0.99666-1.01976-1.24441
FC Heidenheim
Mainz 05
14.5%
66.8%
18.8%
+404
-140
+400
-145
1
0
-1.63707-1.63092-1.93371
Wolfsburg
Darmstadt 98
34.7%
39.4%
25.9%
-106
+294
+115
+270
1
0
-0.69415-0.77111-1.05906
Dortmund
Augsburg
56.4%
22.1%
21.6%
+115
+221
+112
+205
1
1
-1.42200-1.44418-1.53359
Werder Bremen
Borussia Monchengladbach
15.5%
66.3%
18.2%
+222
+116
+235
+110
2
2
-1.40198-1.39159-1.70578
Mainz 05
FC Koln
27.2%
49.1%
23.7%
+165
+177
+165
+170
0
0
-1.27862-1.26475-1.43940
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart
48.9%
27.3%
23.8%
+140
+199
+135
+190
1
1
-1.32950-1.36798-1.43691
RB Leipzig
Dortmund
27.6%
48.9%
23.5%
+147
+173
+146
+165
3
2
-0.92824-0.94284-1.28808
Augsburg
Werder Bremen
26.8%
49.4%
23.8%
+213
+125
+215
+120
0
2
-0.83766-0.82986-0.70581
Freiburg
Wolfsburg
40.8%
32.9%
26.3%
+240
+121
+216
+125
1
0
-1.24712-1.19227-0.89610
Bayern Munich
Eintracht Frankfurt
66.0%
15.8%
18.2%
-300
+825
-333
+800
1
5
-2.24309-2.23914-1.84681
Borussia Monchengladbach
Union Berlin
26.5%
49.5%
24.0%
+270
+110
+260
+105
1
3
-0.76439-0.76329-0.70409
Darmstadt 98
FC Heidenheim
31.0%
43.8%
25.2%
+330
-119
+325
-120
2
3
-0.63556-0.64779-0.82570
VfL Bochum
Hoffenheim
13.9%
68.8%
17.4%
+340
-128
+340
-135
1
3
-0.60765-0.59557-0.37458
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77599 
Sportsbooks22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77152 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60896
0.16702
0.16256

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/10/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (8-0-2, 26 pts)21.64.67.772.681.5%99.8%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2RB Leipzig (6-1-3, 21 pts)17.07.49.560.76.7%76.4%17.7%0.0%0.0%
3Eintracht Frankfurt (6-2-2, 20 pts)15.69.88.755.41.2%45.6%28.7%0.1%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (4-1-5, 17 pts)17.26.010.962.49.2%86.4%9.9%0.0%0.0%
5Freiburg (5-3-2, 17 pts)14.410.88.852.00.3%21.0%29.8%0.1%0.1%
6Union Berlin (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.510.710.848.20.0%8.8%19.4%0.5%0.2%
7Dortmund (5-4-1, 16 pts)15.311.27.653.40.7%30.8%28.4%0.0%0.0%
8Werder Bremen (4-3-3, 15 pts)11.612.59.944.70.0%3.3%8.8%1.9%1.5%
9Borussia Monchengladbach (4-4-2, 14 pts)12.213.08.745.40.0%4.9%10.8%1.8%0.7%
10Mainz 05 (3-3-4, 13 pts)10.812.510.743.10.0%2.2%7.7%3.8%1.8%
11VfB Stuttgart (3-3-4, 13 pts)13.510.110.550.90.4%18.6%27.6%0.1%0.0%
12Wolfsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.913.39.942.50.0%1.5%6.6%4.2%1.9%
13Augsburg (3-4-3, 12 pts)10.414.09.740.80.0%0.5%2.2%6.2%3.4%
14FC Heidenheim (3-6-1, 10 pts)9.217.47.435.00.0%0.0%0.4%18.4%19.4%
15Hoffenheim (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.414.99.738.00.0%0.2%1.8%10.1%9.2%
16FC St. Pauli (2-6-2, 8 pts)8.117.58.432.60.0%0.0%0.0%22.1%32.1%
17Holstein Kiel (1-7-2, 5 pts)6.619.08.428.20.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%65.8%
18VfL Bochum (0-8-2, 2 pts)6.818.58.729.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.7%63.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.