German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 29, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Holstein Kiel
FC St. Pauli 		23.5%
54.6%		21.9%
+326
-118
+320
-120
1.21
1.96		3.17
o2½-118
u2½+100
o2½-115
u2½-105
Games for Nov 28, 2024
Games for Nov 30, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayern Munich		4.3%
87.2%		8.5%
+1223
-510
+1300
-615
1
1		-2.22766-2.21384-2.47065
Union Berlin
Schalke 04		38.2%
35.1%		26.7%
+135
+228
+129
+215
6
1		-0.87366-0.87733-0.96299
Dortmund
Hertha BSC		61.5%
18.7%		19.8%
-132
+332
-139
+345
1
0		-0.59381-0.56541-0.48625
Augsburg
Hoffenheim		13.2%
69.6%		17.1%
+604
-230
+575
-230
0
1		-0.39186-0.40825-0.36256
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Mainz 05		44.5%
30.5%		25.0%
+200
+140
+185
+140
3
0		-1.12451-1.08726-0.80869
Wolfsburg
RB Leipzig		11.3%
72.1%		16.5%
+469
-170
+490
-190
0
2		-0.48514-0.46681-0.32662
VfL Bochum
Freiburg		14.2%
67.1%		18.6%
+521
-195
+525
-200
0
1		-0.44820-0.44679-0.39903
Bayern Munich
VfL Bochum		80.9%
7.1%		12.0%
-500
+1300
-600
+1400
7
0		-0.20796-0.20181-0.21244
FC Koln
Eintracht Frankfurt		19.9%
59.6%		20.4%
+240
+113
+230
+110
1
1		-1.37500-1.35662-1.58782
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin		58.9%
19.5%		21.6%
+128
+235
+120
+235
1
2		-1.22680-1.25180-1.63655
Freiburg
VfB Stuttgart		36.4%
37.1%		26.5%
+160
+175
+160
+165
1
0		-0.97896-0.99671-1.01148
Mainz 05
Augsburg		40.3%
33.5%		26.1%
+105
+300
-105
+285
2
1		-0.72954-0.71756-0.90788
Schalke 04
Wolfsburg		11.9%
71.1%		17.0%
+320
-115
+305
-110
0
0		-1.38994-1.34850-1.77155
Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		15.8%
65.8%		18.4%
+425
-160
+405
-170
3
0		-1.67232-1.66342-1.84649
Werder Bremen
Dortmund		6.1%
83.3%		10.6%
+657
-235
+662
-270
3
2		-2.04145-2.07928-2.79787
Hertha BSC
Borussia Monchengladbach		17.3%
63.3%		19.3%
+525
-190
+500
-210
0
1		-0.44608-0.44055-0.45687
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/24/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (9-0-2, 29 pts)22.34.37.474.486.2%99.5%0.4%0.0%0.0%
2Eintracht Frankfurt (7-2-2, 23 pts)16.29.48.557.00.8%52.6%26.2%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (6-2-3, 21 pts)16.68.39.158.92.5%65.9%21.9%0.0%0.0%
4Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5-1-5, 20 pts)17.75.710.663.89.7%89.1%8.1%0.0%0.0%
5Dortmund (6-4-1, 19 pts)16.010.77.355.30.6%39.8%31.9%0.0%0.0%
6Borussia Monchengladbach (5-4-2, 17 pts)12.712.78.646.70.0%4.9%15.5%0.4%0.3%
7Freiburg (5-4-2, 17 pts)14.111.68.350.50.1%13.6%23.5%0.3%0.1%
8Mainz 05 (4-3-4, 16 pts)11.212.310.544.00.0%2.7%7.7%2.2%0.5%
9VfB Stuttgart (4-3-4, 16 pts)14.09.710.252.30.0%22.7%31.1%0.0%0.0%
10Union Berlin (4-3-4, 16 pts)12.211.410.446.90.1%4.0%13.1%0.6%0.4%
11Wolfsburg (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.712.79.644.70.0%2.9%9.7%1.4%0.5%
12Werder Bremen (4-4-3, 15 pts)11.213.29.743.20.0%1.2%5.4%3.7%1.4%
13Hoffenheim (3-5-3, 12 pts)10.214.49.440.00.0%0.5%2.7%7.0%3.1%
14Augsburg (3-5-3, 12 pts)10.214.49.440.00.0%0.6%2.2%6.4%3.9%
15FC Heidenheim (3-7-1, 10 pts)8.917.87.334.10.0%0.0%0.5%19.5%19.3%
16FC St. Pauli (2-7-2, 8 pts)7.718.18.231.30.0%0.0%0.1%24.7%35.7%
17Holstein Kiel (1-8-2, 5 pts)6.319.87.926.70.0%0.0%0.0%14.2%72.0%
18VfL Bochum (0-9-2, 2 pts)6.619.28.328.00.0%0.0%0.0%19.6%62.8%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.