MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 16, 2025

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago White Sox (14-29)
Chicago Cubs (25-19)
Shane Smith
Cade Horton
25.0%
75.0%
+214
-219
+200
-215

+1½+105
-1½-125
3.39
6.01
9.40

o11-120
u11+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cleveland Guardians (25-18)
Cincinnati Reds (20-24)
Tanner Bibee
Brady Singer
53.5%
46.5%
-120
+115
-117
+112
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-147
4.24
3.87
8.11
o9+100
u9-113
o9-105
u9-110
Pittsburgh Pirates (15-29)
Philadelphia Phillies (25-18)
Andrew Heaney
Ranger Suárez
34.9%
65.1%
+206
-209
+200
-220
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½+100
3.23
4.81
8.04
o8½-103
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Washington Nationals (18-26)
Baltimore Orioles (15-26)
MacKenzie Gore
Cade Povich
46.8%
53.2%
+102
-110
-105
-102
+1½-200
-1½+180

4.31
4.65
8.96
o9-103
u9-110
o9-105
u9-105
New York Mets (28-16)
New York Yankees (25-18)
Tylor Megill
Carlos Rodon
43.9%
56.1%
+123
-130
+126
-136
+1½-165
-1½+151
+1½-162
-1½+150
3.73
4.36
8.09
o9-103
u9-110
o8½-125
u9-105
Detroit Tigers (29-15)
Toronto Blue Jays (21-21)
Jack Flaherty
Bowden Francis
55.5%
44.5%
-125
+118
-125
+118
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-150
4.34
3.76
8.10
o8½+100
u8½-105
o8½+100
u8½-115
Tampa Bay Rays (19-23)
Miami Marlins (16-26)
Taj Bradley
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
54.6%
45.4%




4.15
3.67
7.82


Atlanta Braves (21-22)
Boston Red Sox (22-23)
Chris Sale
Garrett Crochet
46.0%
54.0%
+111
-120
+115
-124
+1½-200
-1½+176
+1½-195
-1½+175
3.53
3.94
7.47
o7½-115
u7½+102
o8-105
u8-115
St. Louis Cardinals (24-20)
Kansas City Royals (25-20)
Andre Pallante
Cole Ragans
41.2%
58.8%
+138
-147
+138
-150
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
3.98
4.90
8.88
o8½-108
u8½-108
o8½+100
u8½-115
Houston Astros (22-20)
Texas Rangers (23-21)
Lance McCullers
Nathan Eovaldi
42.5%
57.5%
+158
-165
+163
-174
+1½-139
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+120
3.21
4.00
7.21
o8-105
u8-103
o8-115
u8+100
Minnesota Twins (23-20)
Milwaukee Brewers (21-23)
Joe Ryan
Chad Patrick
56.3%
43.7%
-105
+101
-108
+100
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+160
+1½-170
3.85
3.19
7.04
o7½-110
u7½-103
o7½-115
u7½+100
Colorado Rockies (7-36)
Arizona Diamondbacks (23-21)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Corbin Burnes
25.6%
74.4%

+320
-390


2.73
5.28
8.01

o9½+100
u9½-120
Seattle Mariners (23-19)
San Diego Padres (27-15)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Stephen Kolek
46.1%
53.9%

+132
-152

+1½-150
-1½+130
4.09
4.50
8.59

o8½-120
u8½+100
Los Angeles Angels (17-25)
Los Angeles Dodgers (28-15)
Jack Kochanowicz
Dustin May
28.1%
71.9%
+252
-285
+250
-285
+1½+130
-1½-140
+1½+125
-1½-145
3.24
5.50
8.74
o9½+102
u9½-118
o9-120
u9+100
Oakland Athletics (22-21)
San Francisco Giants (25-19)
JP Sears
Logan Webb
33.3%
66.7%
+156
-170
+152
-170
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+130
2.62
4.35
6.97
o7-110
u7-103
o7-110
u7-110
Games for May 15, 2025
Games for May 17, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals
48.3%
51.7%
-105
-103
-105
+100

-1½+150
+1½-165
2
1
-0.68844-0.68116-0.72755
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
38.5%
61.5%
+149
-161
+153
-160
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+138
8
0
-0.93057-0.93879-0.95506
Oakland Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays
53.1%
46.9%
-106
-101
-105
+103
-1½+144
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-164
2
1
-0.68136-0.67383-0.63375
Chicago Cubs
Atlanta Braves
43.2%
56.8%
+180
-196
+180
-195
+1½-115
-1½-101
+1½-120
-1½+105
7
8
-0.43137-0.43197-0.56482
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
57.9%
42.1%
-160
+148
-160
+152
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-108
2
4
-0.92669-0.93639-0.86560
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians
47.3%
52.7%
-120
+110
-119
+112
-1½+135
+1½-145
-1½+140
+1½-150
3
5
-0.76336-0.76638-0.64145
Kansas City Royals
Detroit Tigers
52.9%
47.1%
-103
-105
-104
-105

-1½+160
+1½-175
3
2
-0.69788-0.69549-0.63762
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers
47.3%
52.7%
+113
-123
+115
-122
+1½-190
-1½+172
+1½-190
-1½+176
8
7
-0.77696-0.78001-0.74881
Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
40.2%
59.8%
+167
-182
+170
-185
+1½-138
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+122
7
0
-1.00179-1.01255-0.91078
Miami Marlins
San Francisco Giants
47.9%
52.1%
+144
-154
+150
-156
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-140
-1½+134
3
4
-0.51639-0.50464-0.65272
Philadelphia Phillies
Colorado Rockies
48.1%
51.9%
+100
-109
+106
-110
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+165
2
12
-0.67229-0.65583-0.65631
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
45.2%
54.8%
-133
+123
-132
+125
-1½+135
+1½-153
-1½+135
+1½-146
6
0
-0.57975-0.57725-0.79323
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
41.3%
58.7%
+112
-121
+115
-120
+1½-190
-1½+171
+1½-185
-1½+170
2
5
-0.62140-0.61667-0.53307
Pittsburgh Pirates
Minnesota Twins
38.8%
61.2%
+170
-184
+176
-185
+1½-120
-1½+104
+1½-115
-1½+100
6
2
-1.01134-1.02661-0.94721
Los Angeles Angels
Houston Astros
50.9%
49.1%
+132
-140
+130
-136
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+150
4
2
-0.85583-0.84390-0.67482
Texas Rangers
Chicago White Sox
40.6%
59.4%
+163
-175
+165
-175
+1½-130
-1½+115
+1½-120
-1½+120
4
8
-0.46844-0.46561-0.52167
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks64-2 (0.667)0-0.58604 
Sportsbooks64-2 (0.667)0-0.58880 
DRatings64-2 (0.667)0-0.59093
-0.00488
-0.00212

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.