MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 16, 2025

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago White Sox (14-29)
Chicago Cubs (25-19)
Shane Smith
Cade Horton
25.0%
75.0%
+214
-219
+200
-215

+1½+105
-1½-125
3.39
6.01
9.40

o11-120
u11+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cleveland Guardians (25-18)
Cincinnati Reds (20-24)
Tanner Bibee
Brady Singer
53.5%
46.5%
-120
+115
-117
+112
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-147
4.24
3.87
8.11
o9+100
u9-113
o9-105
u9-110
Pittsburgh Pirates (15-29)
Philadelphia Phillies (25-18)
Andrew Heaney
Ranger Suárez
34.9%
65.1%
+200
-209
+200
-220
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½+100
3.23
4.81
8.04
o8½-103
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-115
Washington Nationals (18-26)
Baltimore Orioles (15-26)
MacKenzie Gore
Cade Povich
46.8%
53.2%
+102
-110
-105
-102
+1½-203
-1½+180

4.31
4.65
8.96
o9-106
u9-108
o9-105
u9-105
New York Mets (28-16)
New York Yankees (25-18)
Tylor Megill
Carlos Rodon
43.9%
56.1%
+123
-130
+126
-136
+1½-165
-1½+151
+1½-165
-1½+150
3.73
4.36
8.09
o9-103
u9-110
o8½-125
u9-105
Detroit Tigers (29-15)
Toronto Blue Jays (21-21)
Jack Flaherty
Bowden Francis
55.5%
44.5%
-125
+118
-125
+118
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-150
4.34
3.76
8.10
o8½+100
u8½-105
o8½+100
u8½-115
Tampa Bay Rays (19-23)
Miami Marlins (16-26)
Taj Bradley
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
54.6%
45.4%




4.15
3.67
7.82


Atlanta Braves (21-22)
Boston Red Sox (22-23)
Chris Sale
Garrett Crochet
46.0%
54.0%
+111
-120
+115
-124
+1½-200
-1½+176
+1½-195
-1½+175
3.53
3.94
7.47
o7½-115
u7½+102
o8-105
u8-115
St. Louis Cardinals (24-20)
Kansas City Royals (25-20)
Andre Pallante
Cole Ragans
41.2%
58.8%
+138
-147
+138
-150
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
3.98
4.90
8.88
o8½-108
u8½-108
o8½+100
u8½-115
Houston Astros (22-20)
Texas Rangers (23-21)
Lance McCullers
Nathan Eovaldi
42.5%
57.5%
+160
-170
+163
-174
+1½-139
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+120
3.21
4.00
7.21
o8-105
u8+100
o8-115
u8+100
Minnesota Twins (23-20)
Milwaukee Brewers (21-23)
Joe Ryan
Chad Patrick
56.3%
43.7%
-105
+101
-108
+100
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+160
+1½-170
3.85
3.19
7.04
o7½-110
u7½-103
o7½-115
u7½+100
Colorado Rockies (7-36)
Arizona Diamondbacks (23-21)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Corbin Burnes
25.6%
74.4%

+320
-390


2.73
5.28
8.01

o9½+100
u9½-120
Seattle Mariners (23-19)
San Diego Padres (27-15)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Stephen Kolek
46.1%
53.9%

+132
-152

+1½-150
-1½+130
4.09
4.50
8.59

o8½-120
u8½+100
Los Angeles Angels (17-25)
Los Angeles Dodgers (28-15)
Jack Kochanowicz
Dustin May
28.1%
71.9%
+252
-285
+250
-285
+1½+130
-1½-140
+1½+125
-1½-145
3.24
5.50
8.74
o9½+102
u9½-118
o9-120
u9+100
Oakland Athletics (22-21)
San Francisco Giants (25-19)
JP Sears
Logan Webb
33.3%
66.7%
+156
-170
+152
-170
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+130
2.62
4.35
6.97
o7-110
u7-103
o7-110
u7-110
Games for May 15, 2025
Games for May 17, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
47.1%
52.9%
+130
-138
+130
-135
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
15
0
-0.84987-0.84362-0.75317
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
39.2%
60.8%
+145
-148
+142
-145
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+130
7
2
-0.90217-0.88992-0.93588
San Diego Padres
Seattle Mariners
62.2%
37.8%
-260
+250
-268
+245
-1½-163
+1½+150
-1½-160
+1½+145
7
4
-0.33094-0.32962-0.47443
San Francisco Giants
Oakland Athletics
35.3%
64.7%
+170
-175
+170
-179
+1½-128
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+115
14
2
-1.00239-1.00953-1.04069
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
61.9%
38.1%
-158
+155
-158
+150
-1½+100
+1½-117
-1½+112
+1½-120
2
1
-0.49410-0.50055-0.47896
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
70.2%
29.8%
-183
+180
-190
+175
-1½-135
+1½+120
-1½-133
+1½+120
3
6
-1.03493-1.03778-1.21016
Toronto Blue Jays
Philadelphia Phillies
47.0%
53.0%
-115
+110
-113
+106


6
3
-0.63612-0.64905-0.75462
Arizona Diamondbacks
Houston Astros
39.9%
60.1%
+185
-195
+180
-195
+1½-110
-1½-107
+1½-114
-1½+100
2
3
-0.42301-0.42780-0.50951
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
47.5%
52.5%
+155
-160
+153
-155
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+130
3
5
-0.49166-0.50040-0.64344
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
52.3%
47.7%
-146
+140
-140
+135
-1½+135
+1½-155
-1½+145
+1½-150
1
2
-0.88773-0.86488-0.74101
Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers
56.0%
44.0%
-181
+175
-188
+180
-1½-116
+1½+100
-1½-110
+1½+105
7
4
-0.44591-0.43414-0.57971
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
51.3%
48.7%
+115
-121
+115
-120
+1½-170
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+160
7
0
-0.77914-0.77690-0.66781
Chicago White Sox
Cincinnati Reds
50.1%
49.9%
+120
-126
+120
-128
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+165
3
7
-0.59513-0.59162-0.69557
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
59.1%
40.9%
-188
+180
-190
+180
-1½-130
+1½+120
-1½-125
+1½+115
2
10
-1.04361-1.04700-0.89468
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
57.5%
42.5%
-145
+140
-145
+138
-1½+105
+1½-123
-1½+110
+1½-115
1
2
-0.88571-0.88148-0.85456
San Diego Padres
Seattle Mariners
61.3%
38.7%
-160
+155
-160
+153
-1½-105
+1½-110
-1½+105
+1½-115
1
4
-0.94575-0.94176-0.95021
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks64-2 (0.667)0-0.58604 
Sportsbooks64-2 (0.667)0-0.58880 
DRatings64-2 (0.667)0-0.59093
-0.00488
-0.00212

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.