MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 16, 2025

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chicago White Sox (14-29)
Chicago Cubs (25-19)
Shane Smith
Cade Horton
25.0%
75.0%
+214
-219
+200
-215

+1½+105
-1½-125
3.39
6.01
9.40

o11-120
u11+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cleveland Guardians (25-18)
Cincinnati Reds (20-24)
Tanner Bibee
Brady Singer
53.5%
46.5%
-120
+115
-117
+112
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-147
4.24
3.87
8.11
o9+100
u9-113
o9-105
u9-110
Pittsburgh Pirates (15-29)
Philadelphia Phillies (25-18)
Andrew Heaney
Ranger Suárez
34.9%
65.1%
+206
-209
+200
-220
+1½-110
-1½-110
+1½-110
-1½+100
3.28
4.85
8.13
o8½-103
u8½-110
o8½-105
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Washington Nationals (18-26)
Baltimore Orioles (15-26)
MacKenzie Gore
Cade Povich
46.8%
53.2%
+102
-110
-105
-102
+1½-203
-1½+180

4.31
4.65
8.96
o9-103
u9-110
o9-105
u9-105
New York Mets (28-16)
New York Yankees (25-18)
Tylor Megill
Carlos Rodon
43.9%
56.1%
+123
-130
+126
-136
+1½-165
-1½+151
+1½-162
-1½+150
3.73
4.36
8.09
o9-103
u9-110
o8½-125
u9-105
Detroit Tigers (29-15)
Toronto Blue Jays (21-21)
Jack Flaherty
Bowden Francis
55.5%
44.5%
-125
+118
-125
+118
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-150
4.34
3.76
8.10
o8½+100
u8½-105
o8½+100
u8½-115
Tampa Bay Rays (19-23)
Miami Marlins (16-26)
Taj Bradley
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
54.6%
45.4%




4.18
3.69
7.87


Atlanta Braves (21-22)
Boston Red Sox (22-23)
Chris Sale
Garrett Crochet
46.0%
54.0%
+111
-120
+115
-124
+1½-200
-1½+176
+1½-195
-1½+175
3.53
3.94
7.47
o7½-115
u7½+102
o8-105
u8-115
St. Louis Cardinals (24-20)
Kansas City Royals (25-20)
Andre Pallante
Cole Ragans
41.2%
58.8%
+138
-147
+138
-150
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-155
-1½+140
3.98
4.90
8.88
o8½-108
u8½-108
o8½+100
u8½-115
Houston Astros (22-20)
Texas Rangers (23-21)
Lance McCullers
Nathan Eovaldi
42.5%
57.5%
+158
-165
+163
-174
+1½-139
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+120
3.21
4.00
7.21
o8-105
u8-103
o8-115
u8+100
Minnesota Twins (23-20)
Milwaukee Brewers (21-23)
Joe Ryan
Chad Patrick
56.3%
43.7%
-105
+101
-108
+100
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+160
+1½-170
3.85
3.19
7.04
o7½-110
u7½-103
o7½-115
u7½+100
Colorado Rockies (7-36)
Arizona Diamondbacks (23-21)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Corbin Burnes
25.6%
74.4%

+320
-390


2.73
5.28
8.01

o9½+100
u9½-120
Seattle Mariners (23-19)
San Diego Padres (27-15)
UNDECIDED UNDECIDED
Stephen Kolek
46.1%
53.9%

+132
-152

+1½-150
-1½+130
4.09
4.50
8.59

o8½-120
u8½+100
Los Angeles Angels (17-25)
Los Angeles Dodgers (28-15)
Jack Kochanowicz
Dustin May
28.1%
71.9%
+252
-285
+250
-285
+1½+130
-1½-140
+1½+125
-1½-145
3.24
5.50
8.74
o9½+102
u9½-118
o9-120
u9+100
Oakland Athletics (22-21)
San Francisco Giants (25-19)
JP Sears
Logan Webb
33.3%
66.7%
+156
-170
+152
-170
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+130
2.62
4.35
6.97
o7-113
u7-103
o7-110
u7-110
Games for May 15, 2025
Games for May 17, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Pittsburgh Pirates
Kansas City Royals
39.7%
60.3%
+135
-137
+130
-132
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-150
-1½+145
0
11
-0.55118-0.56722-0.50612
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
36.6%
63.4%
+185
-195
+186
-194
+1½-115
-1½-105
+1½-112
-1½+100
6
3
-1.06441-1.06453-1.00646
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
54.8%
45.2%
+165
-170
+159
-163
+1½-147
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+140
1
2
-0.46818-0.48315-0.79345
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
37.7%
62.3%
+160
-164
+160
-168
+1½-125
-1½+113
+1½-125
-1½+110
1
3
-0.48078-0.47621-0.47284
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
45.0%
55.0%
+160
-160
+160
-162
+1½-128
-1½+110
+1½-128
-1½+115
8
4
-0.95550-0.95933-0.79775
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
47.6%
52.4%
+125
-127
+118
-125
+1½-165
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+152
1
7
-0.58426-0.60071-0.64649
Seattle Mariners
Arizona Diamondbacks
36.7%
63.3%
+145
-153
+147
-151
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
7
3
-0.91202-0.91220-1.00223
Los Angeles Angels
Colorado Rockies
46.6%
53.4%
+130
-133
+125
-134
+1½-145
-1½+127
+1½-145
-1½+130
5
2
-0.83938-0.83037-0.76454
Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
47.0%
53.0%
-106
+100
-105
+100
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+152
+1½-165
4
8
-0.70781-0.70542-0.63473
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Dodgers
34.7%
65.3%
+145
-150
+145
-151
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+130
7
5
-0.90614-0.90812-1.05760
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
63.5%
36.5%
-215
+205
-210
+192
-1½-120
+1½+104
-1½-115
+1½+105
10
1
-0.38960-0.40426-0.45382
Pittsburgh Pirates
Kansas City Royals
44.7%
55.3%
+105
-109
+105
-112
+1½-180
-1½+167
+1½-175
-1½+170
4
7
-0.65996-0.65345-0.59220
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
48.5%
51.5%
-107
+101
-105
+102
-1½+150
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-155
4
2
-0.65506-0.67615-0.72400
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
40.1%
59.9%
+180
-179
+175
-178
+1½-110
-1½-105
+1½-105
-1½+100
0
14
-0.44282-0.44890-0.51263
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
41.3%
58.7%
+195
-205
+190
-208
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-105
4
5
-0.40560-0.40759-0.53309
New York Mets
Toronto Blue Jays
55.0%
45.0%
-161
+155
-161
+155
-1½-113
+1½-105
-1½-109
+1½-105
2
3
-0.94765-0.94765-0.79940
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks64-2 (0.667)0-0.58604 
Sportsbooks64-2 (0.667)0-0.58880 
DRatings64-2 (0.667)0-0.59093
-0.00488
-0.00212

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.