Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 23, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nacional
Vitoria 		10.0%
73.0%		17.1%
+581
-192
+600
-210
0.71
2.29		3.00
o2½-113
u2½-104

Estoril
Benfica 		3.2%
88.1%		8.6%
+2211
-925
+2750
-1650
0.50
3.14		3.64
o3½-112
u3½-101

Rio Ave
Estrela 		22.9%
50.3%		26.8%
+200
+135
+215
+135
0.87
1.44		2.31
o2¼-120
u2½-125

Volatility Bet Value Active
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Games for Dec 27, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Moreirense		56.7%
19.3%		24.0%
-210
+628
-205
+575
3
0		-0.42917-0.44626-0.56734
AVS
Boavista		25.0%
48.4%		26.6%
+227
+147
+235
+135
0
0		-1.16190-1.16575-1.32242
SC Farense
Famalicao		15.3%
63.1%		21.6%
+346
-101
+340
-105
2
1		-1.52092-1.53229-1.87804
Arouca
Casa Pia AC		27.6%
44.0%		28.4%
+250
+142
+215
+150
1
3		-0.91990-0.96582-0.82066
Benfica
Nacional		77.1%
8.2%		14.6%


2
0		-0.25961
Vitoria
Rio Ave		45.9%
26.1%		28.0%
-118
+367
-110
+340
2
2		-1.30339-1.25734-1.27297
Estrela
Porto		5.3%
82.5%		12.1%
+1747
-625
+1700
-710
0
2		-0.18659-0.18032-0.19244
Famalicao
Braga		11.4%
71.3%		17.3%
+493
-168
+500
-175
3
3		-1.44587-1.44745-1.75603
Casa Pia AC
Estoril		29.9%
41.3%		28.8%
+180
+197
+190
+190
2
0		-1.06758-1.11045-1.20681
Benfica
AVS		78.2%
7.5%		14.3%
-520
+1200
-625
+1525
1
1		-1.96369-2.12695-1.94526
Santa Clara
Arouca		32.0%
38.1%		29.9%
+142
+241
+140
+240
0
1		-1.25635-1.27232-0.96464
Boavista
Sporting CP		3.3%
87.9%		8.8%
+1898
-800
+1850
-1000
2
3		-0.15627-0.14531-0.12902
Gil Vicente FC
SC Farense		34.7%
34.6%		30.8%
+183
+172
+210
+150
1
0		-1.07899-1.18061-1.05981
Arouca
Estrela		21.9%
51.8%		26.3%
+170
+180
+180
+170
1
2		-1.07362-1.04214-0.65811
AVS
Casa Pia AC		23.4%
50.4%		26.2%
+380
-119
+390
-120
1
1		-1.27909-1.24514-1.34029
SC Farense
Boavista		24.7%
48.0%		27.3%
+202
+155
+215
+150
1
1		-1.15823-1.14819-1.29887
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.03733 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.04810 
DRatings31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.25593
-0.21860
-0.20783

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).