UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-200
+173
-200
+195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+147
+139
-175
+155
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+310
-345
+355
-440
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+120
-140
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+125
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+155
-180
+155
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+225
-265
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-260
+235
-280
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+145
-105
+145
-165
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-133
+105
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-182
+157
-165
+145
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Trevin Jones
Terrance McKinney		55.0%
45.0%
-154
+145
-150
+145
Loss
Win		-0.91046-0.90421-0.79813
Austin Hubbard
Vinc Pichel		38.4%
61.6%
+123
-140
+125
-140
Loss
Win		-0.57027-0.56639-0.48470
Brandon Royval
Alexandre Pantoja		38.1%
61.9%
+153
-170
+145
-150
Loss
Win		-0.48721-0.51896-0.47954
Austin Lingo
Luis Saldana		43.4%
56.6%
+110
-110
+110
-120
Win
Loss		-0.74194-0.76336-0.83356
Domingo Pilarte
Brian Kelleher		28.6%
71.4%
+165
-185
+165
-175
Loss
Win		-0.45828-0.46561-0.33693
Josiane Nunes
Bea Malecki		48.2%
51.8%
+152
-165
+150
-155
Win
Loss		-0.94353-0.92410-0.72931
Kamuela Kirk
William Knight		26.9%
73.1%
+170
-170
+155
-170
Loss
Win		-0.46262-0.48418-0.31326
Roosevelt Roberts
Ignacio Bahamondes		63.0%
37.0%
-170
+145
-155
+150
Loss
Win		-0.93318-0.92410-0.99455
Ramiz Brahimaj
Sasha Palatnikov		53.7%
46.3%
-180
+163
-170
+160
Win
Loss		-0.46466-0.47678-0.62096
Derrick Lewis
Ciryl Gane		32.1%
67.9%
+280
-325
+290
-300
Loss
Win		-0.29574-0.29408-0.38761
Pedro Munhoz
Jose Aldo		46.1%
53.9%
+110
-108
-105
-110
Loss
Win		-0.65082-0.68201-0.61878
Michael Chiesa
Vicente Luque		46.6%
53.4%
-110
-108
-105
+105
Loss
Win		-0.69756-0.71785-0.62792
Tecia Pennington
Angela Hill		60.2%
39.8%
-140
+148
-155
+150
Win
Loss		-0.52547-0.50566-0.50688
Casey Kenney
Song Yadong		48.0%
52.0%
-118
+120
-130
+115
Loss
Win		-0.78428-0.79536-0.65381
Bobby Green
Rafael Fiziev		32.0%
68.0%
+261
-270
+260
-300
Loss
Win		-0.32180-0.31508-0.38507
Vince Morales
Drako Rodriguez		42.7%
57.3%
-105
-110
-105
-110
Win
Loss		-0.70441-0.70441-0.85081
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.