UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-200
+173
-200
+195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+147
+139
-175
+155
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+310
-345
+355
-440
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+120
-140
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+125
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+155
-180
+155
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+225
-265
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-260
+235
-280
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+145
-105
+145
-165
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-133
+105
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-182
+157
-165
+145
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Ed Herman
Alonzo Menifield		16.2%
83.8%
+230
-250
+235
-260
Loss
Win		-0.35364-0.34595-0.17677
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Jessica Penne		62.5%
37.5%
-125
+130
-145
+130
Loss
Win		-0.82321-0.85918-0.97958
Ode Osbourne
Manel Kape		24.7%
75.3%
+185
-200
+185
-190
Loss
Win		-0.42286-0.42889-0.28364
Anderson Dos Santos
Miles Johns		32.6%
67.4%
+189
-200
+200
-220
Loss
Win		-0.41806-0.39531-0.39441
Victoria Leonardo
Melissa Gatto		34.3%
65.7%
+103
-110
+100
-115
Loss
Win		-0.66291-0.66000-0.41987
Jamey Simmons
Johnny Munoz		20.4%
79.6%
+265
-320
+280
-315
Loss
Win		-0.30718-0.29765-0.22846
Uriah Hall
Sean Strickland		34.5%
65.5%
+180
-210
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.42344-0.42898-0.42323
Gloria de Paula
Cheyanne Vlismas		45.1%
54.9%
+146
-158
+135
-140
Loss
Win		-0.50909-0.54782-0.59975
Niklas Stolze
Jared Gooden		63.4%
36.6%
-176
+151
-170
+155
Loss
Win		-0.95573-0.95763-1.00550
Hu Yaozong
Kris Moutinho		53.7%
46.3%
-150
+138
-150
+135
Win
Loss		-0.53079-0.53604-0.62096
Jason Witt
Bryan Barberena		32.8%
67.2%
+211
-250
+225
-250
Win
Loss		-1.16983-1.20041-1.11517
Chris Gruetzemacher
Rafa Garcia		19.8%
80.2%
+265
-285
+270
-310
Win
Loss		-1.30885-1.33435-1.62040
Kai Kamaka
Danny Chavez		57.4%
42.6%
-119
+100
-115
+100
Draw
Draw		-0.69402-0.69372-0.70436
Jinh Yu Frey
Ashley Yoder		34.5%
65.5%
+140
-140
+140
-160
Win
Loss		-0.87546-0.90701-1.06531
Zarrukh Adashev
Ryan Benoit		45.2%
54.8%
+122
-135
+120
-135
Win
Loss		-0.82212-0.81706-0.79337
Philip Rowe
Orion Cosce		33.2%
66.8%
+143
-162
+155
-165
Win
Loss		-0.91729-0.95078-1.10319
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.