UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-200
+173
-200
+195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+139
-175
+155
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-345
+355
-440
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+125
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+155
-180
+155
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+225
-265
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-260
+235
-280
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+350
-400
+325
All Bet Values Active
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+145
-105
+145
-165
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-133
+105
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-170
+155
-165
+145
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Terrance McKinney
Daniel Rodriguez		17.0%
83.0%
+295
-311
+310
-350
Loss
Win		-0.28860-0.27275-0.18623
Montserrat Conejo
Amanda Lemos		14.3%
85.7%
+425
-525
+450
-550
Loss
Win		-0.20438-0.19464-0.15411
Kamuela Kirk
Khalid Taha		45.1%
54.9%
+127
-130
+125
-135
Win
Loss		-0.82551-0.82968-0.79638
Malcolm Gordon
Francisco Figueiredo		28.3%
71.7%
+235
-275
+260
-285
Win
Loss		-1.24029-1.29880-1.26323
Alan Baudot
Rodrigo Nascimento		31.2%
68.8%
+355
-360
+335
-360
Loss
Win		-0.24751-0.25754-0.37362
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor		32.9%
67.1%
-130
+112
-120
+120
Win
Loss		-0.60679-0.60614-1.11276
Gilbert Burns
Stephen Thompson		48.7%
51.3%
+142
-160
+145
-160
Win
Loss		-0.91198-0.91937-0.71963
Greg Hardy
Tai Tuivasa		46.7%
53.3%
+110
-110
+105
-115
Loss
Win		-0.64663-0.64814-0.62835
Yana Kunitskaya
Irene Aldana		49.0%
51.0%
-115
+115
-115
+105
Loss
Win		-0.76546-0.74028-0.67382
Gregory Rodrigues
Sean O'Malley		12.9%
87.1%
+640
-860
+650
-845
Loss
Win		-0.14050-0.13899-0.13856
Max Griffin
Carlos Condit		56.4%
43.6%
-177
+152
-180
+165
Win
Loss		-0.48306-0.46185-0.57219
Niko Price
Michel Pereira		44.1%
55.9%
+155
-180
+170
-185
Loss
Win		-0.47625-0.45144-0.58116
Ryan Hall
Ilia Topuria		35.5%
64.5%
+181
-209
+190
-205
Loss
Win		-0.42274-0.41412-0.43816
Dricus Du Plessis
Trevin Giles		43.2%
56.8%
-110
-105
-110
+100
Win
Loss		-0.68201-0.67015-0.84042
Jessica Eye
Jennifer Maia		43.8%
56.2%
+174
-200
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.43660-0.42898-0.57606
Brad Tavares
Omari Akhmedov		56.8%
43.2%
-145
+125
-140
+130
Win
Loss		-0.56016-0.55696-0.56498
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.