UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-205
+175
-200
+175
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+139
-175
+155
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-345
+355
-440
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+125
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+175
-205
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+158
-180
+155
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-260
+235
-280
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+145
-105
+145
-165
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-135
+105
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-170
+155
-165
+145
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Jerome Rivera
Zhalgas Zhumagulov		26.7%
73.3%
+245
-275
+245
-280
Loss
Win		-0.33308-0.33173-0.31088
Alexander Volkov
Ciryl Gane		41.4%
58.6%
+140
-153
+145
-154
Loss
Win		-0.52415-0.51473-0.53379
Ovince Saint Preux
Tanner Boser		36.4%
63.6%
+170
-195
+190
-200
Loss
Win		-0.44488-0.41690-0.45323
Timur Valiev
Raoni Barcelos		18.2%
81.8%
+190
-187
+180
-200
Win
Loss		-1.06109-1.05317-1.70216
Tim Means
Nicolas Dalby		47.5%
52.5%
-129
+110
-130
+123
Win
Loss		-0.61266-0.58410-0.74356
Jai Herbert
Renato Moicano		27.5%
72.5%
+205
-230
+215
-240
Loss
Win		-0.38554-0.37138-0.32214
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Danilo Marques		40.9%
59.1%
-130
+122
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.58609-0.59012-0.89316
Michel Prazeres
Shavkat Rakhmonov		39.8%
60.2%
+270
-320
+280
-320
Loss
Win		-0.30361-0.29670-0.50690
Ike Villanueva
Marcin Prachnio		28.3%
71.7%
+181
-211
+205
-220
Loss
Win		-0.42169-0.38995-0.33246
Julija Stoliarenko
Julia Avila		26.5%
73.5%
+300
-350
+305
-350
Loss
Win		-0.27871-0.27570-0.30738
Justin Jaynes
Charles Rosa		31.6%
68.4%
+145
-141
+145
-145
Loss
Win		-0.52924-0.52452-0.37974
Damir Hadzovic
Yancy Medeiros		56.5%
43.5%
-143
+125
-130
+125
Win
Loss		-0.56261-0.58016-0.57096
Chan Sung Jung
Dan Ige		54.3%
45.7%
+130
-145
+145
-150
Win
Loss		-0.85918-0.90421-0.61033
Aleksei Oleinik
Serghei Spivac		41.0%
59.0%
+235
-274
+230
-260
Loss
Win		-0.34179-0.35037-0.52799
Davey Grant
Marlon Vera		19.2%
80.8%
+180
-209
+185
-210
Loss
Win		-0.42398-0.41737-0.21282
Julian Erosa
SeungWoo Choi		46.8%
53.2%
+120
-140
+125
-140
Loss
Win		-0.57618-0.56639-0.63106
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.