UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-205
+185
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+155
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-345
+355
-440
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+125
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+175
-205
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+158
-180
+155
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-260
+235
-280
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-375
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+150
-105
+145
-165
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-135
+105
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-170
+145
-165
+145
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wellington Turman
Bruno Silva		45.8%
54.2%
+110
-124
+115
-130
Loss
Win		-0.62070-0.60042-0.61262
Matt Brown
Dhiego Lima		42.1%
57.9%
+175
-195
+170
-175
Win
Loss		-1.03595-0.99997-0.86503
Nicolae Negumereanu
Aleksa Camur		40.2%
59.8%
+210
-250
+210
-245
Win
Loss		-1.16761-1.16360-0.91247
Kanako Murata
Virna Jandiroba		34.0%
66.0%
+121
-135
+120
-135
Loss
Win		-0.58091-0.58291-0.41579
Matthew Semelsberger
Khaos Williams		29.1%
70.9%
+145
-157
+150
-155
Loss
Win		-0.51171-0.50566-0.34414
Roque Martinez
Josh Parisian		41.3%
58.7%
+130
-150
+145
-152
Loss
Win		-0.54502-0.51683-0.53338
Rick Glenn
Joaquim Silva		44.8%
55.2%
+116
-130
+110
-125
Win
Loss		-0.79791-0.77319-0.80227
Casey O'Neill
Lara Procopio		33.6%
66.4%
+147
-170
+148
-155
Win
Loss		-0.93813-0.91925-1.09169
Marvin Vettori
Israel Adesanya		20.3%
79.7%
+220
-225
+205
-220
Loss
Win		-0.37251-0.38995-0.22709
Brandon Moreno
Deiveson Figueiredo		26.2%
73.8%
+182
-190
+175
-190
Win
Loss		-1.04646-1.03022-1.34075
Nate Diaz
Leon Edwards		29.7%
70.3%
+385
-500
+375
-420
Loss
Win		-0.22108-0.23163-0.35273
Demian Maia
Belal Muhammad		30.7%
69.3%
+204
-205
+185
-210
Loss
Win		-0.39839-0.41737-0.36678
Paul Craig
Jamahal Hill		33.0%
67.0%
+217
-257
+220
-250
Win
Loss		-1.18846-1.18958-1.10975
Drew Dober
Brad Riddell		59.7%
40.3%
-145
+129
-145
+130
Loss
Win		-0.85668-0.85918-0.90877
Eryk Anders
Darren Stewart		57.9%
42.1%
-145
+127
-145
+128
Win
Loss		-0.55638-0.55450-0.54593
Joanne Calderwood
Lauren Murphy		46.5%
53.5%
-135
+119
-130
+120
Loss
Win		-0.81452-0.80802-0.62526
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.