UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-205
+185
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+155
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-385
+355
-440
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+125
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+175
-205
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+158
-180
+155
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-260
+235
-280
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-375
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-135
+105
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-170
+145
-165
+145
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Hakeem Dawodu
Movsar Evloev		27.8%
72.2%
+200
-220
+200
-215
Loss
Win		-0.39531-0.39768-0.32570
Alexis Davis
Pannie Kianzad		42.2%
57.8%
+227
-240
+220
-240
Loss
Win		-0.35994-0.36652-0.54837
Terrance McKinney
Matt Frevola		32.6%
67.4%
+160
-165
+155
-155
Win
Loss		-0.96273-0.93609-1.12233
Steven Peterson
Chase Hooper		53.4%
46.6%
+102
+100
+110
-125
Win
Loss		-0.69814-0.77319-0.62792
Fares Ziam
Luigi Vendramini		50.0%
50.0%
+102
-120
-105
-105
Win
Loss		-0.74280-0.69315-0.69315
Jake Collier
Carlos Felipe		36.1%
63.9%
+130
-141
+135
-153
Loss
Win		-0.55568-0.53278-0.44818
Augusto Sakai
Jairzinho Rozenstruik		42.2%
57.8%
+105
-120
+115
-110
Loss
Win		-0.63885-0.63550-0.54816
Walt Harris
Marcin Tybura		42.0%
58.0%
+155
-175
+170
-170
Loss
Win		-0.48012-0.46262-0.54412
Roman Dolidze
Laureano Staropoli		54.9%
45.1%
-170
+158
-165
+150
Win
Loss		-0.47970-0.49617-0.59949
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Miguel Baeza		38.6%
61.4%
+146
-160
+150
-155
Win
Loss		-0.92181-0.92410-0.95306
Gregory Rodrigues
Dusko Todorovic		42.2%
57.8%
+138
-140
+140
-140
Win
Loss		-0.87060-0.87546-0.86157
Montana De La Rosa
Ariane Lipski		64.3%
35.7%
-290
+255
-270
+235
Win
Loss		-0.32123-0.34293-0.44231
Ilir Latifi
Tanner Boser		37.3%
62.7%
+145
-170
+153
-170
Win
Loss		-0.93318-0.95280-0.98733
Francisco Trinaldo
Muslim Salikhov		36.3%
63.7%
+190
-225
+180
-210
Loss
Win		-0.40419-0.42344-0.45097
Kamuela Kirk
Makwan Amirkhani		32.5%
67.5%
+170
-185
+175
-200
Win
Loss		-1.01255-1.04146-1.12476
Tabatha Ricci
Manon Fiorot		17.2%
82.8%
+400
-400
+475
-505
Loss
Win		-0.22314-0.18925-0.18838
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.