UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-205
+180
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+155
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-385
+355
-440
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+125
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+175
-205
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+158
-180
+155
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-260
+235
-280
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-135
+105
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+160
-165
+145
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Youssef Zalal
Sean Woodson		41.2%
58.8%
+135
-140
+135
-150
Loss
Win		-0.54782-0.53604-0.53140
Claudio Puelles
Jordan Leavitt		28.9%
71.1%
+180
-210
+175
-200
Win
Loss		-1.06360-1.04146-1.24116
Cody Garbrandt
Rob Font		49.6%
50.4%
+104
-120
+110
-120
Loss
Win		-0.64118-0.62755-0.68613
Carla Esparza
Yan Xiaonan		49.3%
50.7%
+115
-130
+120
-128
Win
Loss		-0.79536-0.80428-0.70664
Jared Vanderaa
Justin Tafa		28.6%
71.4%
+155
-180
+170
-175
Win
Loss		-0.97051-0.99997-1.25278
Norma Dumont
Felicia Spencer		35.0%
65.0%
+160
-171
+170
-185
Win
Loss		-0.97101-1.01255-1.05119
Ricardo Ramos
Bill Algeo		48.0%
52.0%
+125
-140
+120
-130
Win
Loss		-0.83833-0.80802-0.73343
Edmen Shahbazyan
Jack Hermansson		41.7%
58.3%
+135
-122
+120
-125
Loss
Win		-0.57343-0.59784-0.53974
Chris Barnett
Ben Rothwell		30.0%
70.0%
+285
-350
+300
-360
Loss
Win		-0.28815-0.27720-0.35643
Court McGee
Claudio Silva		44.5%
55.5%
+105
-115
+105
-110
Win
Loss		-0.74028-0.72940-0.80907
Victor Rodriguez
Bruno Silva		33.1%
66.9%
+385
-390
+320
-360
Loss
Win		-0.23037-0.26562-0.40263
Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
Josh Culibao		32.6%
67.4%
+215
-235
+205
-220
Loss
Win		-0.37333-0.38995-0.39512
Juancamilo Ronderos
David Dvorak		23.0%
77.0%
+425
-560
+450
-500
Loss
Win		-0.20253-0.19737-0.26190
Rafael Alves
Damir Ismagulov		12.7%
87.3%
+425
-510
+450
-540
Loss
Win		-0.20524-0.19515-0.13556
Michael Chandler
Charles Oliveira		43.4%
56.6%
+120
-130
+115
-125
Loss
Win		-0.59012-0.60825-0.56962
Tony Ferguson
Beneil Dariush		44.8%
55.2%
+134
-147
+135
-145
Loss
Win		-0.54120-0.54173-0.59468
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.