UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-205
+180
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+160
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-385
+355
-425
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+125
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+175
-205
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+158
-180
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-260
+235
-280
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-135
+110
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+160
-165
+155
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rogerio Bontorin
Matt Schnell		47.7%
52.3%
+150
-170
+150
-165
Win
Loss		-0.94549-0.93869-0.74015
Viviane Araujo
Katlyn Chookagian		34.2%
65.8%
+115
-125
+115
-130
Loss
Win		-0.60825-0.60042-0.41875
Edson Barboza
Shane Burgos		45.6%
54.4%
+135
-145
+142
-155
Win
Loss		-0.87165-0.90461-0.78463
Andre Muniz
Jacare Souza		49.7%
50.3%
+115
-128
+115
-125
Win
Loss		-0.79164-0.78592-0.69947
Lando Vannata
Mike Grundy		48.1%
51.9%
+113
-125
+105
-120
Win
Loss		-0.78086-0.75056-0.73276
Jamie Pickett
Jordan Wright		48.8%
51.2%
-110
-110
-110
+100
Loss
Win		-0.69315-0.71668-0.66845
Andrea Lee
Antonina Shevchenko		38.0%
62.0%
+100
-116
+110
-120
Win
Loss		-0.72952-0.76336-0.96824
Priscila Cachoeira
Gina Mazany		44.9%
55.1%
+215
-245
+210
-220
Win
Loss		-1.17464-1.14144-0.80078
Tucker Lutz
Kevin Aguilar		51.6%
48.4%
-135
+118
-135
+120
Win
Loss		-0.58695-0.58291-0.66080
Sean Soriano
Christos Giagos		38.6%
61.4%
+191
-220
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.40536-0.41146-0.48704
Michelle Waterson
Marina Rodriguez		26.5%
73.5%
+190
-220
+200
-210
Loss
Win		-0.40651-0.40015-0.30829
Alex Morono
Donald Cerrone		38.7%
61.3%
+160
-150
+155
-155
Win
Loss		-0.93999-0.93609-0.94868
Neil Magny
Geoff Neal		37.8%
62.2%
+150
-171
+155
-167
Win
Loss		-0.94683-0.95355-0.97270
Maurice Greene
Marcos Rogerio de Lima		41.4%
58.6%
+160
-175
+165
-180
Loss
Win		-0.47276-0.46185-0.53425
Diego Ferreira
Gregor Gillespie		71.3%
28.7%
+130
-134
+120
-135
Loss
Win		-0.56488-0.58291-1.24949
Kyle Daukaus
Phillip Hawes		47.0%
53.0%
-145
+125
-140
+130
Loss
Win		-0.84658-0.85085-0.63471
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.