UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-205
+185
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+160
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-385
+355
-425
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+125
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+160
-185
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-180
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-270
+235
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-135
+110
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+165
-165
+155
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Michael Trizano
Ludovit Klein		35.3%
64.7%
+210
-235
+200
-230
Win
Loss		-1.15518-1.12846-1.04253
Junyong Park
Tafon Nchukwi		33.7%
66.3%
+132
-144
+140
-140
Win
Loss		-0.86254-0.87546-1.08723
Christian Aguilera
Carlston Harris		45.8%
54.2%
+185
-200
+180
-190
Loss
Win		-0.42286-0.43510-0.61277
Dominick Reyes
Jiri Prochazka		46.9%
53.1%
+100
-102
-110
+115
Loss
Win		-0.68824-0.75432-0.63209
Cub Swanson
Giga Chikadze		42.6%
57.4%
+185
-200
+180
-190
Loss
Win		-0.42286-0.43510-0.55525
Dustin Jacoby
Ion Cutelaba		52.4%
47.6%
+110
-130
+115
-125
Draw
Draw		-0.69681-0.69708-0.69431
Krzysztof Jotko
Sean Strickland		36.6%
63.4%
+230
-235
+220
-245
Loss
Win		-0.35906-0.36468-0.45597
Cody Stamann
Merab Dvalishvili		31.8%
68.2%
+230
-265
+242
-260
Loss
Win		-0.34881-0.33994-0.38314
Randa Markos
Luana Pinheiro		32.5%
67.5%
+135
-153
+145
-150
Loss
Win		-0.53278-0.51896-0.39350
TJ Brown
Kai Kamaka		33.0%
67.0%
+150
-145
+130
-140
Win
Loss		-0.90810-0.85085-1.10948
Luana Carolina
Poliana Botelho		49.6%
50.4%
+240
-250
+220
-240
Win
Loss		-1.23213-1.18136-0.70164
Sam Hughes
Loma Lookboonmee		42.6%
57.4%
+308
-390
+330
-380
Loss
Win		-0.26845-0.25755-0.55527
KB Bhullar
Andreas Michailidis		30.3%
69.7%
+180
-193
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.43320-0.42898-0.36107
Felipe Colares
Luke Sanders		30.9%
69.1%
+106
-125
+110
-120
Win
Loss		-0.76288-0.76336-1.17309
Jorge Masvidal
Kamaru Usman		24.7%
75.3%
+285
-335
+270
-305
Loss
Win		-0.29063-0.30666-0.28421
Rose Namajunas
Zhang Weili		40.8%
59.2%
+175
-200
+185
-200
Win
Loss		-1.04146-1.06470-0.89600
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.