UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-210
+185
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+160
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-385
+355
-425
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+125
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+160
-185
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-180
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-270
+235
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-135
+110
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+165
-165
+155
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Jessica Andrade
Valentina Shevchenko		24.1%
75.9%
+380
-500
+400
-450
Loss
Win		-0.22314-0.21869-0.27560
Chris Weidman
Uriah Hall		48.0%
52.0%
-150
+146
-155
+145
Loss
Win		-0.90666-0.91198-0.65356
Anthony Smith
Jimmy Crute		43.7%
56.3%
+213
-235
+220
-240
Win
Loss		-1.16181-1.18136-0.82695
Alex Oliveira
Randy Brown		40.2%
59.8%
+120
-125
+110
-124
Loss
Win		-0.59784-0.62070-0.51487
Stefan Sekulic
Dwight Grant		35.4%
64.6%
+160
-177
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.47120-0.45497-0.43731
Karl Roberson
Brendan Allen		42.8%
57.2%
+145
-132
+140
-150
Loss
Win		-0.54079-0.52736-0.55900
Patrick Sabatini
Tristan Connelly		62.1%
37.9%
-225
+204
-235
+210
Win
Loss		-0.38876-0.37834-0.47707
Kevin Natividad
Batgerel Danaa		32.1%
67.9%
+210
-220
+195
-210
Loss
Win		-0.38472-0.40573-0.38752
Kazula Vargas
Rong Zhu		26.9%
73.1%
+190
-211
+190
-210
Win
Loss		-1.08773-1.08672-1.31327
Jeff Molina
Aori Qileng		50.0%
50.0%
-115
+110
-115
+110
Win
Loss		-0.63673-0.63673-0.69315
Na Liang
Ariane Carnelossi		39.7%
60.3%
+186
-214
+185
-210
Loss
Win		-0.41412-0.41737-0.50537
Kelvin Gastelum
Robert Whittaker		35.1%
64.9%
+225
-253
+220
-250
Loss
Win		-0.35719-0.36291-0.43157
Andrei Arlovski
Chase Sherman		43.8%
56.2%
+110
-115
+105
-115
Win
Loss		-0.75294-0.74028-0.82549
Jacob Malkoun
Abdul Razak Alhassan		16.9%
83.1%
+245
-290
+250
-285
Win
Loss		-1.27125-1.27841-1.77644
Justine Kish
Tracy Cortez		43.7%
56.3%
+300
-320
+280
-320
Loss
Win		-0.28377-0.29670-0.57522
Luis Pena
Alex Munoz		63.5%
36.5%
-155
+143
-155
+140
Win
Loss		-0.51701-0.52206-0.45479
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.