UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-210
+185
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+160
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-385
+355
-425
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+160
-185
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-180
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-270
+235
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-135
+110
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+165
-165
+155
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Juan Espino
Alexandr Romanov		33.2%
66.8%
+145
-160
+140
-150
Loss
Win		-0.50878-0.52736-0.40318
Jessica Penne
Loopy Godinez		39.5%
60.5%
+220
-260
+240
-260
Win
Loss		-1.19730-1.23998-0.92778
Bartosz Fabinski
Gerald Meerschaert		54.0%
46.0%
-120
+108
-125
+110
Loss
Win		-0.75824-0.77319-0.77607
Dakota Bush
Austin Hubbard		40.7%
59.3%
+195
-210
+190
-200
Loss
Win		-0.40573-0.41690-0.52194
Tony Gravely
Anthony Birchak		68.0%
32.0%
-360
+320
-360
+305
Win
Loss		-0.26562-0.27421-0.38594
Kevin Holland
Marvin Vettori		41.9%
58.1%
+260
-320
+270
-300
Loss
Win		-0.31086-0.30775-0.54233
Arnold Allen
Sodiq Yusuff		43.1%
56.9%
+133
-150
+130
-145
Win
Loss		-0.87465-0.85918-0.84223
Sam Alvey
Julian Marquez		39.4%
60.6%
+127
-147
+135
-148
Loss
Win		-0.55401-0.53828-0.50022
Nina Nunes
Mackenzie Dern		47.8%
52.2%
-120
+108
-120
+120
Loss
Win		-0.75824-0.78845-0.64972
Mike Perry
Daniel Rodriguez		28.2%
71.8%
+105
-119
+105
-120
Loss
Win		-0.64065-0.63885-0.33149
Jim Miller
Joe Solecki		44.8%
55.2%
+210
-250
+220
-240
Loss
Win		-0.37267-0.36652-0.59410
Scott Holtzman
Mateusz Gamrot		42.5%
57.5%
+200
-245
+210
-240
Loss
Win		-0.38484-0.37637-0.55316
John Makdessi
Ignacio Bahamondes		34.9%
65.1%
+170
-190
+175
-180
Win
Loss		-1.01846-1.01807-1.05389
Jarjis Danho
Yorgan De Castro		33.3%
66.7%
+250
-300
+250
-292
Win
Loss		-1.28786-1.28294-1.09964
Hunter Azure
Jack Shore		37.5%
62.5%
+160
-183
+175
-190
Loss
Win		-0.46674-0.44150-0.46997
Jordan Griffin
Luis Saldana		38.2%
61.8%
+118
-135
+120
-135
Loss
Win		-0.58695-0.58291-0.48198
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.