UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-210
+185
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+160
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-385
+355
-425
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+160
-185
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-180
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-270
+235
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+119
-135
+110
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+165
-165
+155
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Da-Un Jung
William Knight		45.5%
54.5%
-138
+118
-140
+120
Win
Loss		-0.58284-0.57618-0.78638
Impa Kasanganay
Sasha Palatnikov		71.1%
28.9%
-253
+220
-250
+220
Win
Loss		-0.36187-0.36291-0.34115
Stipe Miocic
Francis Ngannou		41.2%
58.8%
+120
-135
+125
-134
Loss
Win		-0.58291-0.57442-0.53144
Tyron Woodley
Vicente Luque		39.6%
60.4%
+169
-194
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.44685-0.45497-0.50354
Thomas Almeida
Sean O'Malley		28.1%
71.9%
+295
-325
+300
-330
Loss
Win		-0.28598-0.28198-0.32942
Gillian Robertson
Miranda Maverick		45.8%
54.2%
+140
-154
+145
-155
Loss
Win		-0.52308-0.51371-0.61269
Jamie Mullarkey
Khama Worthy		40.2%
59.8%
+111
-130
+125
-135
Win
Loss		-0.78511-0.82968-0.91175
William Knight
Alonzo Menifield		38.4%
61.6%
+240
-280
+260
-275
Loss
Win		-0.33588-0.32121-0.48527
Jared Gooden
Abubakar Nurmagomedov		38.1%
61.9%
+200
-217
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.39672-0.41146-0.47984
Modestas Bukauskas
Michal Oleksiejczuk		46.8%
53.2%
+163
-185
+168
-180
Loss
Win		-0.46107-0.45770-0.63068
Omar Morales
Shane Young		83.3%
16.7%
-205
+181
-185
+180
Win
Loss		-0.42492-0.43838-0.18254
Marc-Andre Barriault
Abu Azaitar		45.7%
54.3%
-113
-103
-105
-105
Win
Loss		-0.67111-0.69315-0.78294
Derek Brunson
Kevin Holland		46.2%
53.8%
+190
-200
+190
-200
Win
Loss		-1.07614-1.07614-0.77161
Kenan Song
Max Griffin		42.7%
57.3%
+181
-210
+180
-185
Loss
Win		-0.42220-0.43838-0.55666
Montserrat Conejo
Cheyanne Vlismas		28.4%
71.6%
+225
-275
+245
-270
Win
Loss		-1.21885-1.25776-1.25927
Gustavo Lopez
Adrian Yanez		26.6%
73.4%
+190
-225
+200
-220
Loss
Win		-0.40419-0.39531-0.30949
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.