UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-210
+185
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+160
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-385
+355
-425
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+140
-160
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+160
-185
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-180
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-270
+235
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+115
-135
+110
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+165
-165
+155
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Harry Hunsucker
Tai Tuivasa		40.4%
59.6%
+370
-460
+375
-430
Loss
Win		-0.23033-0.23071-0.51768
Marion Reneau
Macy Chiasson		35.1%
64.9%
+201
-230
+205
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38979-0.38995-0.43168
Leonardo Santos
Grant Dawson		42.8%
57.2%
+165
-180
+175
-190
Loss
Win		-0.46185-0.44150-0.55811
Trevin Giles
Roman Dolidze		43.6%
56.4%
-105
-104
-105
+102
Win
Loss		-0.69081-0.67627-0.83023
Jesse Strader
Montel Jackson		24.3%
75.7%
+486
-650
+500
-660
Loss
Win		-0.17974-0.17557-0.27827
Bruno Silva
JP Buys		35.5%
64.5%
+128
-135
+125
-135
Win
Loss		-0.83716-0.82968-1.03640
Ryan Spann
Misha Cirkunov		38.7%
61.3%
+120
-120
+120
-130
Win
Loss		-0.78845-0.80802-0.94850
Dan Ige
Gavin Tucker		73.7%
26.3%
-160
+160
-175
+175
Win
Loss		-0.48552-0.45199-0.30460
Davey Grant
Jonathan Martinez		22.3%
77.7%
+255
-305
+260
-310
Win
Loss		-1.30114-1.31423-1.49960
Manel Kape
Matheus Nicolau		52.5%
47.5%
-120
+110
-115
+105
Loss
Win		-0.76336-0.74028-0.74440
Ashley Yoder
Angela Hill		33.8%
66.2%
+275
-330
+270
-315
Loss
Win		-0.29823-0.30458-0.41258
Marcelo Rojo
Charles Jourdain		41.9%
58.1%
+245
-275
+245
-280
Loss
Win		-0.33308-0.33173-0.54345
Ray Rodriguez
Rani Yahya		26.6%
73.4%
+245
-285
+240
-260
Loss
Win		-0.33042-0.34163-0.30936
Rafa Garcia
Nasrat Haqparast		19.5%
80.5%
+425
-565
+450
-525
Loss
Win		-0.20229-0.19594-0.21689
Cortney Casey
JJ Aldrich		50.1%
49.9%
+130
-145
+135
-145
Loss
Win		-0.55080-0.54173-0.69547
Jinh Yu Frey
Gloria de Paula		46.5%
53.5%
+175
-190
+185
-210
Win
Loss		-1.03022-1.07523-0.76503
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.