UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-210
+185
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+160
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+355
-425
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+140
-160
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+160
-185
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-180
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-285
+235
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+300
-400
+325
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+115
-135
+110
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+165
-165
+155
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Matthew Semelsberger
Jason Witt		54.9%
45.1%
-125
+105
-120
+110
Win
Loss		-0.63023-0.62755-0.59968
Jan Blachowicz
Israel Adesanya		19.6%
80.4%
+210
-250
+230
-250
Win
Loss		-1.16761-1.21110-1.62944
Megan Anderson
Amanda Nunes		21.3%
78.7%
+565
-815
+575
-700
Loss
Win		-0.15600-0.15642-0.23898
Aljamain Sterling
Petr Yan		37.7%
62.3%
+100
-120
+115
-125
Win
Loss		-0.73760-0.78592-0.97519
Drew Dober
Islam Makhachev		23.2%
76.8%
+365
-450
+380
-440
Loss
Win		-0.23336-0.22768-0.26456
Thiago Santos
Aleksandar Rakic		32.9%
67.1%
+170
-190
+175
-185
Loss
Win		-0.44809-0.44482-0.39876
Casey Kenney
Dominick Cruz		50.6%
49.4%
-125
+115
-130
+122
Loss
Win		-0.78592-0.81306-0.70587
Kyler Phillips
Song Yadong		28.1%
71.9%
+185
-180
+180
-200
Win
Loss		-1.04103-1.05317-1.26976
Joseph Benavidez
Askar Askarov		45.2%
54.8%
+136
-150
+140
-145
Loss
Win		-0.53428-0.53299-0.60148
Kai Kara-France
Rogerio Bontorin		65.2%
34.8%
-130
+117
-124
+115
Win
Loss		-0.59626-0.60989-0.42794
Jordan Espinosa
Tim Elliott		41.4%
58.6%
+135
-140
+130
-145
Loss
Win		-0.54782-0.55080-0.53367
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Carlos Ulberg		33.9%
66.1%
+185
-215
+195
-200
Win
Loss		-1.08019-1.08743-1.08099
Jake Matthews
Sean Brady		40.2%
59.8%
+195
-215
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.40323-0.41146-0.51462
Livinha Souza
Amanda Lemos		57.5%
42.5%
+207
-225
+200
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38560-0.39531-0.85496
Aalon Cruz
Uros Medic		30.8%
69.2%
+182
-185
+175
-185
Loss
Win		-0.43586-0.44482-0.36752
Trevin Jones
Mario Bautista		24.1%
75.9%
+195
-230
+200
-210
Win
Loss		-1.11712-1.10933-1.42167
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.