UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-210
+190
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+160
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+355
-425
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+140
-160
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+160
-185
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-180
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-285
+235
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+325
-400
+325
Overall Bet Value Active
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+163
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+115
-135
+110
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+165
-165
+155
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Ciryl Gane		36.7%
63.3%
+203
-230
+195
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38765-0.40084-0.45803
Nikita Krylov
Magomed Ankalaev		30.6%
69.4%
+255
-305
+250
-280
Loss
Win		-0.31776-0.32768-0.36537
Montana De La Rosa
Mayra Bueno Silva		43.7%
56.3%
-114
-105
-130
+110
Draw
Draw		-0.69334-0.69681-0.70128
Pedro Munhoz
Jimmie Rivera		42.3%
57.7%
+115
-133
+120
-135
Win
Loss		-0.80078-0.81706-0.86069
Kevin Croom
Alex Caceres		32.0%
68.0%
+135
-143
+145
-155
Loss
Win		-0.54412-0.51371-0.38515
Thiago Moises
Alexander Hernandez		37.8%
62.2%
+189
-213
+200
-220
Win
Loss		-1.08743-1.11923-0.97302
Alexis Davis
Sabina Mazo		36.2%
63.8%
+189
-224
+190
-215
Win
Loss		-1.09796-1.09172-1.01622
Vince Cachero
Ronnie Lawrence		37.8%
62.2%
+165
-170
+160
-175
Loss
Win		-0.46959-0.47276-0.47408
Maxim Grishin
Dustin Jacoby		32.6%
67.4%
+139
-155
+145
-160
Loss
Win		-0.52376-0.50878-0.39421
Derrick Lewis
Curtis Blaydes		25.8%
74.2%
+340
-400
+365
-400
Win
Loss		-1.50851-1.55183-1.35666
Yana Kunitskaya
Ketlen Vieira		32.3%
67.7%
+250
-275
+250
-280
Win
Loss		-1.27165-1.27508-1.12902
Darrick Minner
Charles Rosa		25.2%
74.8%
+160
-171
+160
-170
Win
Loss		-0.97101-0.96964-1.37908
Aleksei Oleinik
Chris Daukaus		42.5%
57.5%
+172
-200
+180
-195
Loss
Win		-0.43920-0.43197-0.55330
Nassourdine Imavov
Phillip Hawes		41.3%
58.7%
+111
-120
+110
-115
Loss
Win		-0.62534-0.63673-0.53338
Andrei Arlovski
Tom Aspinall		21.0%
79.0%
+230
-270
+240
-270
Loss
Win		-0.34732-0.33865-0.23520
Danny Chavez
Jared Gordon		55.3%
44.7%
-120
+117
-120
+108
Loss
Win		-0.78100-0.75824-0.80558
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.