UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-220
+185
-200
+180
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+150
-175
+160
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+355
-425
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+140
-160
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+165
-190
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-180
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+235
-275
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-285
+235
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+325
-400
+325
Overall Bet Value Active
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+115
-135
+110
-125
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+160
-165
+155
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
John Castaneda
Eddie Wineland		48.7%
51.3%
-125
+110
-130
+120
Win
Loss		-0.61904-0.59012-0.71892
Nate Landwehr
Julian Erosa		40.6%
59.4%
-130
+138
-150
+140
Loss
Win		-0.85238-0.89199-0.52069
Shana Dobson
Casey O'Neill		46.4%
53.6%
+145
-155
+148
-150
Loss
Win		-0.51371-0.51405-0.62321
Aiemann Zahabi
Drako Rodriguez		40.1%
59.9%
+204
-200
+190
-190
Win
Loss		-1.10745-1.06470-0.91474
Gilbert Burns
Kamaru Usman		23.9%
76.1%
+250
-275
+250
-280
Loss
Win		-0.32902-0.32768-0.27275
Maycee Barber
Alexa Grasso		50.9%
49.1%
+101
-103
-110
+100
Loss
Win		-0.68336-0.71668-0.71058
Ian Heinisch
Kelvin Gastelum		41.7%
58.3%
+170
-193
+175
-185
Loss
Win		-0.44615-0.44482-0.53924
Brian Kelleher
Ricky Simon		36.2%
63.8%
+210
-235
+220
-250
Loss
Win		-0.37834-0.36291-0.44892
Maki Pitolo
Julian Marquez		36.1%
63.9%
+150
-165
+145
-155
Loss
Win		-0.49617-0.51371-0.44724
Anthony Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira		29.2%
70.8%
+405
-510
+400
-460
Win
Loss		-1.65292-1.63066-1.23052
Dhiego Lima
Belal Muhammad		20.2%
79.8%
+408
-480
+400
-450
Loss
Win		-0.21338-0.21869-0.22612
Polyana Viana
Mallory Martin		49.0%
51.0%
-109
-108
-110
+100
Win
Loss		-0.69095-0.67015-0.71382
Andre Ewell
Chris Gutierrez		28.7%
71.3%
+108
-128
+115
-124
Loss
Win		-0.61863-0.60989-0.33819
Gabriel Green
Philip Rowe		54.7%
45.3%
-135
+115
-130
+115
Win
Loss		-0.59314-0.60042-0.60270
Alistair Overeem
Alexander Volkov		43.0%
57.0%
+150
-172
+160
-165
Loss
Win		-0.49016-0.48102-0.56189
Frankie Edgar
Cory Sandhagen		24.0%
76.0%
+267
-315
+285
-340
Loss
Win		-0.30673-0.28978-0.27378
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.