UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-222
+187
-200
+200
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+158
-160
+160
All Bet Values Active
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+325
-380
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-130
+120
-140
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+168
-190
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-177
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+240
-280
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-285
+235
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+325
-400
+325
Overall Bet Value Active
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+115
-133
+120
-130
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+165
-175
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Clay Guida
Michael Johnson		38.6%
61.4%
+170
-184
+175
-185
Win
Loss		-1.01134-1.02427-0.95101
Manel Kape
Alexandre Pantoja		41.5%
58.5%
-105
-110
-105
+100
Loss
Win		-0.68201-0.70528-0.53608
Beneil Dariush
Diego Ferreira		50.0%
50.0%
-125
+117
-130
+125
Win
Loss		-0.60404-0.58016-0.69365
Danilo Marques
Mike Rodriguez		37.4%
62.6%
+205
-240
+200
-220
Win
Loss		-1.14832-1.11923-0.98307
Justin Jaynes
Devonte Smith		31.9%
68.1%
+300
-355
+300
-340
Loss
Win		-0.27796-0.28030-0.38387
Joselyne Edwards
Karol Rosa		40.7%
59.3%
+175
-195
+180
-195
Loss
Win		-0.43833-0.43197-0.52180
Lara Procopio
Molly McCann		51.8%
48.2%
+110
-120
+100
-113
Win
Loss		-0.76336-0.72321-0.65869
SeungWoo Choi
Youssef Zalal		16.9%
83.1%
+200
-225
+200
-235
Win
Loss		-1.12393-1.13286-1.77685
Martin Day
Timur Valiev		24.8%
75.2%
+400
-490
+400
-500
Loss
Win		-0.21577-0.21511-0.28517
Jerome Rivera
Ode Osbourne		45.4%
54.6%
+175
-187
+180
-210
Loss
Win		-0.44346-0.42344-0.60488
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor		32.9%
67.1%
+260
-304
+260
-300
Win
Loss		-1.31074-1.30833-1.11276
Damon Jackson
Dan Hooker		18.1%
81.9%
+140
-160
+145
-150
Win
Loss		-0.90701-0.90421-1.70854
Jessica Eye
Joanne Calderwood		52.9%
47.1%
+105
-125
+110
-125
Loss
Win		-0.63023-0.61904-0.75370
Andrew Sanchez
Makhmud Muradov		38.0%
62.0%
+185
-195
+190
-200
Loss
Win		-0.42580-0.41690-0.47862
Marina Rodriguez
Amanda Ribas		35.5%
64.5%
+285
-350
+300
-350
Win
Loss		-1.38490-1.41371-1.03426
Matt Frevola
Arman Tsarukyan		32.2%
67.8%
+575
-650
+555
-700
Loss
Win		-0.15781-0.16083-0.38787
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.