UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-222
+187
-200
+200
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+145
+158
-160
+160
All Bet Values Active
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+335
-380
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+112
-130
+120
-125
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+168
-190
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-177
+155
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+238
-278
-280
+245
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-285
+240
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-360
+325
-400
+325
Overall Bet Value Active
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+165
-105
+170
-185
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+115
-133
+120
-130
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-185
+165
-175
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Antonio Carlos Junior
Brad Tavares		49.1%
50.9%
-125
+106
-130
+117
Loss
Win		-0.76288-0.80044-0.67472
Julianna Pena
Sara McMann		52.0%
48.0%
+100
-115
+110
-115
Win
Loss		-0.72743-0.75294-0.65325
Marcin Prachnio
Khalil Rountree Jr.		32.4%
67.6%
+330
-400
+370
-400
Win
Loss		-1.49063-1.56022-1.12569
Nik Lentz
Movsar Evloev		18.0%
82.0%
+570
-700
+555
-650
Loss
Win		-0.15750-0.16225-0.19884
Amir Albazi
Zhalgas Zhumagulov		48.9%
51.1%
-114
-105
-120
+105
Win
Loss		-0.67372-0.63885-0.71564
Michael Chiesa
Neil Magny		55.1%
44.9%
+125
-145
+135
-145
Win
Loss		-0.84658-0.87165-0.59568
Warlley Alves
Mounir Lazzez		38.2%
61.8%
+230
-255
+240
-260
Win
Loss		-1.21503-1.23998-0.96260
Vinicius Moreira
Ike Villanueva		53.1%
46.9%
-110
-106
-105
-110
Loss
Win		-0.70209-0.68201-0.75803
Roxanne Modafferi
Viviane Araujo		38.9%
61.1%
+260
-310
+275
-310
Loss
Win		-0.31290-0.30209-0.49297
Matt Schnell
Tyson Nam		50.0%
50.0%
+100
-110
-105
-108
Win
Loss		-0.71668-0.69999-0.69379
Douglas Silva de Andrade
Lerone Murphy		30.2%
69.8%
+274
-317
+300
-320
Loss
Win		-0.30139-0.28377-0.35924
Omari Akhmedov
Tom Breese		39.2%
60.8%
+131
-145
+135
-125
Win
Loss		-0.86168-0.83533-0.93593
Gaetano Pirrello
Ricky Simon		19.7%
80.3%
+391
-500
+425
-500
Loss
Win		-0.21865-0.20586-0.21929
Zarrukh Adashev
Su Mudaerji		16.2%
83.8%
+400
-550
+440
-500
Loss
Win		-0.21218-0.20067-0.17632
Markus Perez
Dalcha Lungiambula		55.2%
44.8%
+149
-165
+155
-160
Loss
Win		-0.49774-0.49303-0.80294
Francisco Figueiredo
Jerome Rivera		56.2%
43.8%
-150
+135
-145
+135
Win
Loss		-0.53604-0.54173-0.57593
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.