UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-222
+187
-220
+200
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+146
+150
-170
+155
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-125
+115
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+168
-185
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-177
+160
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+238
-278
-280
+265
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-290
+240
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-365
+325
-400
+335
Overall Bet Value Active
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+115
-133
+120
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-180
+165
-180
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Mason Jones
Mike Davis		31.0%
69.0%
+135
-155
+135
-150
Loss
Win		-0.53067-0.53604-0.37154
Calvin Kattar
Max Holloway		39.0%
61.0%
+140
-150
+145
-160
Loss
Win		-0.52736-0.50878-0.49359
Matt Brown
Carlos Condit		38.1%
61.9%
+172
-200
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.43920-0.41146-0.47939
Jingliang Li
Santiago Ponzinibbio		30.2%
69.8%
+285
-350
+290
-330
Win
Loss		-1.38490-1.38454-1.19889
Alessio Di Chirico
Joaquin Buckley		32.9%
67.1%
+233
-262
+250
-250
Win
Loss		-1.22676-1.25278-1.11170
Punahele Soriano
Dusko Todorovic		41.2%
58.8%
+147
-170
+160
-175
Win
Loss		-0.93813-0.97625-0.88603
Joselyne Edwards
Wu Yanan		50.0%
50.0%
-110
+102
-110
+100
Win
Loss		-0.66532-0.67015-0.69315
Justin Tafa
Carlos Felipe		33.4%
66.6%
+167
-186
+170
-185
Loss
Win		-0.45482-0.45144-0.40618
David Zawada
Ramazan Emeev		22.0%
78.0%
+267
-300
+265
-310
Loss
Win		-0.30991-0.30921-0.24868
Vanessa Melo
Sarah Moras		40.8%
59.2%
+155
-180
+175
-180
Win
Loss		-0.97051-1.01807-0.89622
Jacob Kilburn
Austin Lingo		51.3%
48.7%
+192
-225
+195
-215
Loss
Win		-0.40191-0.40323-0.71963
Geoff Neal
Stephen Thompson		51.9%
48.1%
-110
-103
-108
+100
Loss
Win		-0.70970-0.71255-0.73166
Marlon Vera
Jose Aldo		42.5%
57.5%
+120
-137
+125
-127
Loss
Win		-0.57668-0.58426-0.55339
Khaos Williams
Michel Pereira		50.9%
49.1%
-120
+111
-115
+110
Loss
Win		-0.76735-0.75362-0.71040
Rob Font
Marlon Moraes		46.7%
53.3%
+150
-165
+150
-150
Win
Loss		-0.94500-0.91629-0.76053
Greg Hardy
Marcin Tybura		59.1%
40.9%
-102
-105
-115
-105
Loss
Win		-0.68591-0.71609-0.89475
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.