UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-222
+187
-220
+200
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
+146
+150
-170
+155
All Bet Values Active
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-125
+115
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+168
-185
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-177
+160
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+238
-278
-300
+250
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-290
+240
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+300
-400
+335
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+115
-120
+120
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-180
+165
-180
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Alex Morono
Anthony Pettis		34.0%
66.0%
+175
-195
+175
-185
Loss
Win		-0.43280-0.44201-0.41620
Pannie Kianzad
Sijara Eubanks		39.0%
61.0%
+120
-140
+125
-135
Win
Loss		-0.83101-0.83246-0.94156
Deron Winn
Antonio Arroyo		43.6%
56.4%
+160
-175
+165
-180
Win
Loss		-0.98315-1.00171-0.83117
Gillian Robertson
Taila Santos		41.4%
58.6%
-125
+125
-130
+120
Loss
Win		-0.81094-0.81042-0.53449
Jamie Pickett
Tafon Nchukwi		28.9%
71.1%
+275
-318
+275
-320
Loss
Win		-0.29162-0.29086-0.34115
Cody Durden
Jimmy Flick		45.0%
55.0%
+142
-160
+155
-155
Loss
Win		-0.50903-0.49784-0.59815
Christos Giagos
Carlton Minus		70.4%
29.6%
-340
+285
-325
+310
Win
Loss		-0.27907-0.27391-0.35110
Brandon Moreno
Deiveson Figueiredo		26.2%
73.8%
+270
-320
+285
-320
Draw
Draw		-0.83149-0.83843-0.82204
Charles Oliveira
Tony Ferguson		42.9%
57.1%
+160
-165
+165
-165
Win
Loss		-0.96498-0.97456-0.84725
Virna Jandiroba
Mackenzie Dern		45.5%
54.5%
+135
-150
+135
-145
Loss
Win		-0.53232-0.53929-0.60690
Jacare Souza
Kevin Holland		66.9%
33.1%
+110
-125
+110
-120
Loss
Win		-0.61676-0.62618-1.10425
Junior Dos Santos
Ciryl Gane		30.7%
69.3%
+325
-400
+360
-420
Loss
Win		-0.24544-0.22922-0.36665
Cub Swanson
Daniel Pineda		46.3%
53.7%
+135
-152
+142
-160
Win
Loss		-0.88872-0.91899-0.76962
Renato Moicano
Rafael Fiziev		47.3%
52.7%
+125
-120
+115
-120
Loss
Win		-0.59691-0.61587-0.63995
Billy Quarantillo
Gavin Tucker		61.6%
38.4%
-177
+175
-190
+175
Loss
Win		-1.01520-1.03778-0.95657
Sam Hughes
Tecia Pennington		15.2%
84.8%
+450
-595
+475
-550
Loss
Win		-0.17775-0.17898-0.16506
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.