UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-222
+187
-220
+200
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+160
-165
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-125
+115
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-198
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-177
+160
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+238
-278
-300
+250
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-290
+240
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+300
-400
+335
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+125
-120
+120
-140
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-180
+165
-180
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Peter Barrett
Chase Hooper		28.2%
71.8%
+255
-305
+260
-300
Loss
Win		-0.30693-0.30638-0.33074
Jack Hermansson
Marvin Vettori		39.0%
61.0%
+115
-130
+125
-130
Loss
Win		-0.59775-0.57912-0.49508
Ovince Saint Preux
Jamahal Hill		34.3%
65.7%
+155
-170
+175
-175
Loss
Win		-0.48007-0.45199-0.42019
Justin Jaynes
Gabriel Benitez		40.2%
59.8%
+190
-222
+180
-200
Loss
Win		-0.39704-0.42349-0.51498
John Allan
Roman Dolidze		28.2%
71.8%
+175
-190
+180
-185
Loss
Win		-0.43731-0.43697-0.33168
Matt Wiman
Jordan Leavitt		31.8%
68.2%
+340
-420
+350
-380
Loss
Win		-0.23546-0.24242-0.38254
Jose Quinonez
Louis Smolka		48.3%
51.7%
+100
-115
+100
-120
Loss
Win		-0.65886-0.64869-0.65993
Damon Jackson
Ilia Topuria		37.8%
62.2%
+230
-225
+210
-235
Loss
Win		-0.36436-0.37185-0.47408
Jake Collier
Gian Villante		39.0%
61.0%
+165
-187
+170
-175
Win
Loss		-1.01366-1.00239-0.94197
Devin Clark
Anthony Smith		44.2%
55.8%
+115
-130
+115
-120
Loss
Win		-0.59775-0.61587-0.58281
Takashi Sato
Miguel Baeza		34.6%
65.4%
+185
-210
+190
-200
Loss
Win		-0.41057-0.41412-0.42523
Parker Porter
Josh Parisian		36.6%
63.4%
+200
-225
+205
-210
Win
Loss		-1.13784-1.12325-1.00550
Bill Algeo
Spike Carlyle		44.4%
55.6%
+170
-180
+170
-170
Win
Loss		-1.01129-0.99325-0.81146
Ashlee Evans-Smith
Norma Dumont		49.9%
50.1%
-145
+130
-140
+130
Loss
Win		-0.86401-0.85395-0.69151
Kai Kamaka
Jonathan Pearce		77.2%
22.8%
-270
+245
-268
+260
Loss
Win		-1.27272-1.29186-1.47705
Anderson Dos Santos
Martin Day		35.9%
64.1%
+152
-163
+155
-160
Win
Loss		-0.94538-0.94575-1.02577
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.