UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-222
+187
-220
+200
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+160
-165
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-125
+115
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-198
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-177
+160
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+238
-278
-300
+250
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-290
+240
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+300
-400
+335
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+125
-133
+120
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-180
+165
-180
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rachael Ostovich
Gina Mazany		42.4%
57.6%
+167
-190
+175
-185
Loss
Win		-0.44579-0.44201-0.55201
Malcolm Gordon
Su Mudaerji		31.0%
69.0%
+300
-350
+325
-325
Loss
Win		-0.26933-0.26826-0.37119
Luke Sanders
Nate Maness		52.4%
47.6%
-150
+135
-145
+145
Loss
Win		-0.88486-0.89610-0.74141
Alex Perez
Deiveson Figueiredo		32.2%
67.8%
+222
-250
+230
-260
Loss
Win		-0.35401-0.34305-0.38890
Jennifer Maia
Valentina Shevchenko		16.3%
83.7%
+1100
-1300
+1000
-1205
Loss
Win		-0.08054-0.08749-0.17785
Tim Means
Mike Perry		42.0%
58.0%
+102
-115
+110
-120
Win
Loss		-0.73380-0.76492-0.86781
Katlyn Chookagian
Cynthia Calvillo		39.5%
60.5%
+210
-240
+210
-230
Win
Loss		-1.17652-1.16219-0.92958
Mauricio Rua
Paul Craig		43.1%
56.9%
+175
-188
+175
-180
Loss
Win		-0.43917-0.44690-0.56317
Brandon Royval
Brandon Moreno		36.7%
63.3%
+135
-132
+140
-145
Loss
Win		-0.55911-0.53173-0.45776
Jordan Wright
Joaquin Buckley		36.6%
63.4%
+200
-220
+200
-200
Loss
Win		-0.38995-0.40546-0.45549
Ariane Lipski
Antonina Shevchenko		39.6%
60.4%
+115
-117
+130
-125
Loss
Win		-0.62170-0.57912-0.50441
Nicolas Dalby
Daniel Rodriguez		23.9%
76.1%
+290
-340
+310
-320
Win
Loss		-1.41948-1.42296-1.43171
Jared Gooden
Alan Jouban		46.0%
54.0%
+135
-140
+150
-145
Loss
Win		-0.54663-0.51765-0.61543
Dustin Stoltzfus
Kyle Daukaus		35.9%
64.1%
+250
-260
+255
-260
Loss
Win		-0.33092-0.32813-0.44480
Sasha Palatnikov
Louis Cosce		25.0%
75.0%
+435
-560
+500
-540
Win
Loss		-1.77656-1.82350-1.38733
Rafael Dos Anjos
Paul Felder		56.8%
43.2%
-210
+185
-200
+180
Win
Loss		-0.41057-0.42349-0.56555
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.