UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-222
+187
-220
+205
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+155
-165
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-125
+115
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-198
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-177
+160
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+238
-278
-300
+250
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+250
-290
+240
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+300
-400
+335
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+125
-133
+120
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-180
+165
-180
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Khaos Williams
Abdul Razak Alhassan		35.4%
64.6%
+170
-162
+170
-165
Win
Loss		-0.97811-0.98387-1.03832
Ashley Yoder
Miranda Granger		35.4%
64.6%
+140
-157
+155
-165
Win
Loss		-0.90909-0.95514-1.03733
Sean Strickland
Brendan Allen		47.5%
52.5%
+110
-121
+120
-130
Win
Loss		-0.76714-0.81042-0.74419
Cory McKenna
Kay Hansen		28.4%
71.6%
+170
-185
+175
-190
Win
Loss		-1.01993-1.03781-1.26051
Randa Markos
Kanako Murata		40.5%
59.5%
+200
-225
+210
-210
Loss
Win		-0.38641-0.38946-0.51960
Geraldo de Freitas
Tony Gravely		45.8%
54.2%
+115
-129
+120
-130
Loss
Win		-0.59947-0.58819-0.61166
Rhys McKee
Alex Morono		29.0%
71.0%
+175
-195
+175
-190
Loss
Win		-0.43280-0.43731-0.34191
Roque Martinez
Don'Tale Mayes		30.9%
69.1%
+230
-260
+230
-250
Loss
Win		-0.34305-0.34866-0.36940
Glover Teixeira
Thiago Santos		37.9%
62.1%
+205
-235
+205
-230
Win
Loss		-1.16095-1.15376-0.97003
Andrei Arlovski
Tanner Boser		28.8%
71.2%
+320
-365
+335
-360
Win
Loss		-1.48470-1.49772-1.24629
Khalid Taha
Raoni Barcelos		10.9%
89.1%
+345
-400
+325
-380
Loss
Win		-0.23871-0.25078-0.11507
Jamey Simmons
Giga Chikadze		5.5%
94.5%
+660
-855
+630
-880
Loss
Win		-0.12572-0.12728-0.05621
Claudia Gadelha
Yan Xiaonan		44.1%
55.9%
+160
-180
+170
-175
Loss
Win		-0.46343-0.45728-0.58111
Trevin Giles
Bevon Lewis		48.0%
52.0%
-115
+104
-110
+105
Win
Loss		-0.64944-0.65778-0.73478
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Alexandr Romanov		28.9%
71.1%
+425
-495
+410
-475
Loss
Win		-0.19757-0.20455-0.34142
Eduardo Garagorri
Darren Elkins		34.3%
65.7%
+245
-290
+250
-280
Loss
Win		-0.31901-0.32080-0.42068
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.