UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-222
+187
-230
+205
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+155
-165
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-420
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-125
+105
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-198
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-177
+160
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+230
-270
-300
+250
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+265
-300
+240
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+300
-400
+335
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+125
-133
+120
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-180
+165
-180
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Ramiz Brahimaj
Max Griffin		42.3%
57.7%
+125
-138
+122
-135
Loss
Win		-0.56616-0.57624-0.54913
Gustavo Lopez
Anthony Birchak		39.8%
60.2%
-126
+115
-140
+125
Win
Loss		-0.60477-0.56310-0.92148
Anderson Silva
Uriah Hall		33.1%
66.9%
+235
-225
+240
-260
Loss
Win		-0.36111-0.33680-0.40217
Andre Fili
Bryce Mitchell		43.5%
56.5%
+110
-117
+110
-120
Loss
Win		-0.63207-0.62618-0.57088
Maurice Greene
Greg Hardy		29.9%
70.1%
+300
-305
+290
-340
Loss
Win		-0.28562-0.27686-0.35548
Charlie Ontiveros
Kevin Holland		9.0%
91.0%
+575
-750
+550
-725
Loss
Win		-0.14260-0.14795-0.09381
Thiago Moises
Bobby Green		31.0%
69.0%
+245
-280
+255
-280
Win
Loss		-1.28551-1.30041-1.17186
Chris Gruetzemacher
Alexander Hernandez		24.6%
75.4%
+410
-365
+400
-450
Loss
Win		-0.23012-0.21185-0.28277
Victor Rodriguez
Adrian Yanez		14.2%
85.8%
+415
-450
+425
-500
Loss
Win		-0.20824-0.19671-0.15298
Jack Marshman
Sean Strickland		30.1%
69.9%
+335
-380
+395
-420
Loss
Win		-0.24732-0.21960-0.35806
Cole Williams
Jason Witt		42.5%
57.5%
+155
-145
+170
-170
Loss
Win		-0.51109-0.46262-0.55354
Justin Ledet
Dustin Jacoby		27.8%
72.2%
+290
-330
+300
-350
Loss
Win		-0.28035-0.26933-0.32590
Kevin Natividad
Miles Johns		32.4%
67.6%
+125
-133
+135
-140
Loss
Win		-0.57414-0.54663-0.39133
Justin Gaethje
Khabib Nurmagomedov		19.7%
80.3%
+243
-275
+250
-280
Loss
Win		-0.32727-0.32080-0.21898
Jared Cannonier
Robert Whittaker		47.0%
53.0%
-120
+100
-114
+105
Loss
Win		-0.73965-0.73909-0.63480
Walt Harris
Alexander Volkov		27.7%
72.3%
+158
-180
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.46580-0.45216-0.32490
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.