UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-222
+190
-230
+205
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+155
-165
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-440
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-130
+105
-125
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+140
-160
+135
-145
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-198
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-177
+160
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
+230
-270
-300
+250
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+265
-310
+240
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+300
-400
+335
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+125
-138
+120
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-180
+165
-180
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Jacob Malkoun
Phillip Hawes		34.3%
65.7%
+215
-240
+220
-245
Loss
Win		-0.36498-0.35836-0.42006
Liliya Shakirova
Lauren Murphy		33.7%
66.3%
+200
-227
+205
-220
Loss
Win		-0.38503-0.38593-0.41051
Ion Cutelaba
Magomed Ankalaev		30.7%
69.3%
+320
-360
+300
-330
Loss
Win		-0.25843-0.27612-0.36610
Tai Tuivasa
Stefan Struve		49.0%
51.0%
-152
+140
-150
+140
Win
Loss		-0.52214-0.52482-0.71380
Casey Kenney
Nathaniel Wood		52.1%
47.9%
-145
+127
-138
+130
Win
Loss		-0.55226-0.55771-0.65275
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Alex Oliveira		44.7%
55.3%
-140
+123
-145
+140
Win
Loss		-0.56660-0.53174-0.80453
Sam Alvey
Da-Un Jung		22.2%
77.8%
+285
-310
+290
-335
Draw
Draw		-0.83458-0.84634-0.87796
Liana Jojua
Miranda Maverick		31.8%
68.2%
+325
-380
+350
-380
Loss
Win		-0.25078-0.24242-0.38207
Joel Alvarez
Alexander Yakovlev		68.0%
32.0%
-182
+160
-165
+160
Win
Loss		-0.46143-0.47963-0.38572
Brian Ortega
Chan Sung Jung		41.2%
58.8%
+180
-185
+170
-182
Win
Loss		-1.03843-1.01476-0.88596
Katlyn Chookagian
Jessica Andrade		56.1%
43.9%
+155
-151
+150
-165
Loss
Win		-0.50299-0.49213-0.82230
Modestas Bukauskas
Jimmy Crute		29.9%
70.1%
+255
-255
+250
-265
Loss
Win		-0.33085-0.32828-0.35563
Claudio Silva
James Krause		40.2%
59.8%
+135
-125
+110
-120
Loss
Win		-0.57089-0.62618-0.51490
Jonathan Martinez
Thomas Almeida		40.3%
59.7%
+120
-134
+129
-130
Win
Loss		-0.81882-0.83073-0.90932
Guram Kutateladze
Mateusz Gamrot		26.9%
73.1%
+250
-290
+260
-270
Win
Loss		-1.30542-1.29455-1.31327
Poliana Botelho
Gillian Robertson		43.6%
56.4%
+210
-208
+200
-230
Loss
Win		-0.39102-0.38299-0.57213
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.