UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-225
+190
-230
+205
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+153
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+360
-460
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+120
-135
+105
-125
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+143
-163
+140
-155
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-198
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+160
-177
+160
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-310
+260
-300
+250
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+265
-310
+240
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+300
-400
+335
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-142
+120
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-180
+165
-180
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
John Phillips
Junyong Park		27.5%
72.5%
+245
-265
+250
-280
Loss
Win		-0.33116-0.32080-0.32178
Fares Ziam
Jamie Mullarkey		46.3%
53.7%
+125
-135
+120
-130
Win
Loss		-0.83246-0.81042-0.77096
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Maxim Grishin		29.6%
70.4%
+285
-300
+260
-300
Loss
Win		-0.29420-0.30638-0.35048
Mark Striegl
Said Nurmagomedov		13.8%
86.2%
+330
-380
+330
-400
Loss
Win		-0.24903-0.24370-0.14871
Marlon Moraes
Cory Sandhagen		44.6%
55.4%
+115
-131
+120
-140
Loss
Win		-0.59604-0.57201-0.59021
Makwan Amirkhani
Edson Barboza		38.1%
61.9%
+220
-260
+210
-238
Loss
Win		-0.34976-0.36993-0.48007
Marcin Tybura
Ben Rothwell		42.2%
57.8%
+129
-140
+120
-130
Win
Loss		-0.85174-0.81042-0.86190
Markus Perez
Dricus Du Plessis		44.9%
55.1%
+175
-190
+180
-190
Loss
Win		-0.43731-0.43229-0.59558
Alan Baudot
Tom Aspinall		16.0%
84.0%
+525
-625
+525
-650
Loss
Win		-0.16130-0.15860-0.17429
Ilia Topuria
Youssef Zalal		28.7%
71.3%
+135
-150
+140
-148
Win
Loss		-0.88489-0.89172-1.24705
KB Bhullar
Tom Breese		29.3%
70.7%
+180
-210
+200
-210
Loss
Win		-0.41530-0.39742-0.34616
Chris Daukaus
Rodrigo Nascimento		31.2%
68.8%
+200
-210
+220
-220
Win
Loss		-1.11489-1.16315-1.16552
Joaquin Buckley
Impa Kasanganay		37.8%
62.2%
+220
-257
+225
-240
Win
Loss		-1.21638-1.20094-0.97408
Ali Al Qaisi
Tony Kelley		37.8%
62.2%
+148
-162
+155
-165
Loss
Win		-0.49832-0.48574-0.47408
Giga Chikadze
Omar Morales		39.6%
60.4%
+160
-175
+170
-180
Win
Loss		-0.98315-1.01129-0.92715
Stephanie Egger
Tracy Cortez		36.9%
63.1%
+127
-145
+135
-145
Loss
Win		-0.55224-0.53929-0.45975
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.