UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-225
+190
-230
+205
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+360
-460
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+105
-125
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+128
-148
+135
-150
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-162
+160
-180
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-310
+260
-300
+250
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+265
-310
+240
-280
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+300
-400
+335
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-140
+120
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-177
+165
-180
+160
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bruno Silva
Tagir Ulanbekov		16.8%
83.2%
+415
-475
+400
-450
Loss
Win		-0.20339-0.21185-0.18419
Irene Aldana
Holly Holm		38.1%
61.9%
+110
-125
+115
-125
Loss
Win		-0.61676-0.60657-0.47912
Carlos Felipe
Yorgan De Castro		47.8%
52.2%
+195
-220
+200
-210
Win
Loss		-1.12166-1.11489-0.73781
Germaine de Randamie
Julianna Pena		69.3%
30.7%
-155
+145
-160
+150
Win
Loss		-0.51109-0.49809-0.36684
Cameron Else
Kyler Phillips		20.9%
79.1%
+325
-370
+330
-380
Loss
Win		-0.25364-0.24903-0.23472
Dequan Townsend
Dusko Todorovic		17.4%
82.6%
+345
-410
+330
-370
Loss
Win		-0.23623-0.25188-0.19102
Court McGee
Carlos Condit		49.7%
50.3%
-135
+117
-135
+125
Loss
Win		-0.81378-0.83243-0.68802
Josh Culibao
Charles Jourdain		25.9%
74.1%
+410
-450
+380
-435
Draw
Draw		-0.93785-0.92079-0.82536
Nassourdine Imavov
Jordan Williams		46.3%
53.7%
-135
+125
-135
+130
Win
Loss		-0.57091-0.56240-0.77096
Jinh Yu Frey
Loma Lookboonmee		49.7%
50.3%
+130
-138
+120
-140
Loss
Win		-0.55769-0.57201-0.68627
Heili Alateng
Casey Kenney		27.8%
72.2%
+330
-370
+310
-360
Loss
Win		-0.25188-0.26220-0.32534
Jessin Ayari
Luigi Vendramini		50.0%
50.0%
+100
-117
-105
-105
Loss
Win		-0.65472-0.69315-0.69315
Paulo Costa
Israel Adesanya		31.0%
69.0%
+168
-190
+170
-180
Loss
Win		-0.44469-0.45216-0.37073
Jan Blachowicz
Dominick Reyes		28.3%
71.7%
+210
-240
+205
-235
Win
Loss		-1.17652-1.16095-1.26206
Brandon Royval
Kai Kara-France		37.1%
62.9%
+175
-193
+175
-190
Win
Loss		-1.04279-1.03781-0.99204
Sijara Eubanks
Ketlen Vieira		45.8%
54.2%
+190
-213
+178
-200
Loss
Win		-0.40371-0.42544-0.61308
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.