UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-225
+190
-230
+205
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+340
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-135
+110
-125
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+128
-148
+135
-150
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-162
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-310
+260
-300
+250
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+265
-310
+275
-290
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+300
-400
+335
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+168
-105
+170
-190
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-140
+120
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-177
+165
-180
+165
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Hakeem Dawodu
Zubaira Tukhugov		51.3%
48.7%
-105
-110
+100
-110
Win
Loss		-0.70484-0.71723-0.66744
Alex Da Silva
Brad Riddell		26.9%
73.1%
+280
-310
+270
-310
Loss
Win		-0.29240-0.29717-0.31326
Diego Sanchez
Jake Matthews		22.8%
77.2%
+535
-650
+555
-700
Loss
Win		-0.15712-0.14946-0.25878
Ludovit Klein
Shane Young		45.9%
54.1%
-130
+120
-130
+125
Win
Loss		-0.58819-0.57912-0.77949
William Knight
Aleksa Camur		35.0%
65.0%
+124
-140
+130
-145
Win
Loss		-0.84037-0.86401-1.04994
Jeff Hughes
Juan Espino		29.3%
70.7%
+285
-325
+270
-300
Loss
Win		-0.28437-0.30128-0.34733
Danilo Marques
Khadis Ibragimov		49.7%
50.3%
+175
-190
+170
-185
Win
Loss		-1.03781-1.01993-0.69941
Tyron Woodley
Colby Covington		28.8%
71.2%
+290
-325
+300
-340
Loss
Win		-0.28216-0.27264-0.33923
Donald Cerrone
Niko Price		46.0%
54.0%
+120
-140
+135
-135
Draw
Draw		-0.70151-0.70436-0.69638
Gerald Meerschaert
Khamzat Chimaev		21.6%
78.4%
+415
-500
+425
-500
Loss
Win		-0.19896-0.19671-0.24352
Ryan Spann
Johnny Walker		54.1%
45.9%
+135
-150
+150
-150
Loss
Win		-0.53232-0.51083-0.77796
Randa Markos
Mackenzie Dern		27.9%
72.1%
+170
-190
+165
-170
Loss
Win		-0.44254-0.46818-0.32744
Darren Stewart
Kevin Holland		27.2%
72.8%
+265
-270
+270
-290
Loss
Win		-0.31762-0.30563-0.31792
Jordan Espinosa
David Dvorak		46.3%
53.7%
-110
-110
-105
-110
Loss
Win		-0.69315-0.68159-0.62220
Mara Romero Borella
Mayra Bueno Silva		25.0%
75.0%
+235
-256
+235
-260
Loss
Win		-0.34207-0.33987-0.28722
Sarah Alpar
Jessica-Rose Clark		32.6%
67.4%
+175
-180
+180
-185
Loss
Win		-0.44690-0.43697-0.39418
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.