UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-225
+190
-230
+205
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+330
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+115
-130
+110
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+135
-155
+135
-152
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-162
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-310
+260
-300
+260
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+265
-310
+275
-290
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+325
-400
+335
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+175
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-147
+135
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-177
+158
-180
+165
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Darrick Minner
TJ Laramie		39.1%
60.9%
+270
-310
+265
-315
Win
Loss		-1.35837-1.35689-0.93800
Randy Costa
Journey Newson		41.4%
58.6%
+121
-127
+115
-125
Win
Loss		-0.80629-0.78794-0.88257
Irwin Rivera
Andre Ewell		39.8%
60.2%
+220
-250
+205
-230
Loss
Win		-0.35539-0.37899-0.50667
Jerome Rivera
Tyson Nam		36.5%
63.5%
+170
-175
+165
-180
Loss
Win		-0.45728-0.45768-0.45454
Michelle Waterson
Angela Hill		49.8%
50.2%
+145
-140
+141
-155
Win
Loss		-0.88574-0.90745-0.69709
Khama Worthy
Ottman Azaitar		63.4%
36.6%
+135
-110
+105
-110
Loss
Win		-0.59940-0.65776-1.00417
Roxanne Modafferi
Andrea Lee		37.5%
62.5%
+245
-280
+255
-280
Win
Loss		-1.28551-1.30041-0.98168
Ed Herman
Mike Rodriguez		38.1%
61.9%
+225
-255
+225
-250
Win
Loss		-1.22183-1.21503-0.96601
Alan Patrick
Bobby Green		35.0%
65.0%
+265
-305
+255
-300
Loss
Win		-0.30170-0.30903-0.43003
Kyle Nelson
Billy Quarantillo		33.0%
67.0%
+250
-270
+235
-265
Loss
Win		-0.32572-0.33721-0.40116
Sijara Eubanks
Julia Avila		41.1%
58.9%
+250
-250
+240
-270
Win
Loss		-1.25278-1.26517-0.88831
Kevin Croom
Roosevelt Roberts		22.6%
77.4%
+450
-575
+450
-550
Win
Loss		-1.80193-1.78480-1.48850
Brok Weaver
Jalin Turner		38.4%
61.6%
+325
-400
+320
-360
Loss
Win		-0.24544-0.25843-0.48474
Anthony Ivy
Bryan Barberena		24.0%
76.0%
+205
-225
+210
-240
Loss
Win		-0.38240-0.36868-0.27424
Justine Kish
Sabina Mazo		40.0%
60.0%
+195
-220
+205
-220
Loss
Win		-0.39414-0.38593-0.51013
Augusto Sakai
Alistair Overeem		39.5%
60.5%
+155
-170
+150
-160
Loss
Win		-0.48007-0.49809-0.50254
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.