UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-225
+190
-230
+205
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+330
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+112
-125
+110
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+138
-158
+135
-152
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-162
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-315
+265
-300
+260
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+265
-310
+265
-290
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+325
-400
+350
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+175
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-147
+135
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-177
+158
-180
+165
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Ovince Saint Preux
Alonzo Menifield		49.0%
51.0%
+137
-145
+135
-140
Win
Loss		-0.87936-0.86488-0.71253
Zelim Imadaev
Michel Pereira		45.1%
54.9%
+135
-145
+140
-140
Loss
Win		-0.53929-0.53900-0.59918
Andre Muniz
Bartosz Fabinski		44.0%
56.0%
+129
-145
+125
-145
Win
Loss		-0.86176-0.85261-0.82084
Montana De La Rosa
Viviane Araujo		45.7%
54.3%
+165
-179
+165
-175
Loss
Win		-0.45869-0.46283-0.60984
Cole Smith
Hunter Azure		39.2%
60.8%
+235
-245
+230
-250
Loss
Win		-0.34840-0.34866-0.49783
Anthony Smith
Aleksandar Rakic		36.6%
63.4%
+205
-240
+222
-250
Loss
Win		-0.37250-0.35401-0.45629
Robbie Lawler
Neil Magny		37.2%
62.8%
+203
-238
+210
-225
Loss
Win		-0.37533-0.37853-0.46598
Ji Yeon Kim
Alexa Grasso		29.0%
71.0%
+232
-270
+225
-260
Loss
Win		-0.33649-0.34636-0.34246
Bill Algeo
Ricardo Lamas		20.8%
79.2%
+230
-251
+230
-250
Loss
Win		-0.34808-0.34866-0.23374
Maki Pitolo
Impa Kasanganay		36.1%
63.9%
+137
-145
+131
-145
Loss
Win		-0.53623-0.54564-0.44724
Alessio Di Chirico
Zak Cummings		36.7%
63.3%
-135
+117
-130
+125
Loss
Win		-0.81378-0.82187-0.45659
Christian Aguilera
Sean Brady		24.9%
75.1%
+340
-410
+330
-385
Loss
Win		-0.23784-0.24765-0.28654
Emily Whitmire
Polyana Viana		48.2%
51.8%
-135
+119
-130
+125
Loss
Win		-0.81853-0.82187-0.65832
Hannah Cifers
Mallory Martin		31.3%
68.7%
+250
-300
+250
-270
Loss
Win		-0.31177-0.32572-0.37612
Frankie Edgar
Pedro Munhoz		38.0%
62.0%
+235
-265
+240
-270
Win
Loss		-1.25092-1.26517-0.96829
Marcin Prachnio
Mike Rodriguez		32.9%
67.1%
+200
-213
+190
-210
Loss
Win		-0.39513-0.40602-0.39843
Load More Fights

Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.