UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-225
+190
-230
+205
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+330
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+112
-125
+110
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+138
-158
+140
-155
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-162
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-315
+265
-300
+260
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+265
-315
+315
-290
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+325
-400
+350
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+175
-105
+170
-195
Volatility Bet Value Active
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-147
+135
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-180
+158
-180
+165
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Austin Hubbard
Joe Solecki		42.4%
57.6%
-120
+110
-120
+110
Loss
Win		-0.76492-0.76492-0.55224
Shana Dobson
Mariya Agapova		19.5%
80.5%
+990
-1375
+1150
-1300
Win
Loss		-2.52861-2.58085-1.63296
Daniel Rodriguez
Dwight Grant		59.5%
40.5%
-195
+175
-180
+175
Win
Loss		-0.43280-0.44690-0.51877
Amanda Lemos
Inoue Mizuki		45.2%
54.8%
+135
-135
+130
-140
Win
Loss		-0.85442-0.85397-0.79436
Ike Villanueva
Jordan Wright		46.7%
53.3%
-103
-112
+105
-120
Loss
Win		-0.67244-0.63709-0.63008
Carlton Minus
Matthew Semelsberger		50.0%
50.0%
-105
-106
-110
-110
Loss
Win		-0.69079-0.69315-0.69315
Trevin Jones
Timur Valiev		23.1%
76.9%
+470
-585
+460
-550
Win
Loss		-1.82815-1.79450-1.46326
Stipe Miocic
Daniel Cormier		46.6%
53.4%
-103
-112
+105
-110
Win
Loss		-0.71429-0.72983-0.76254
Marlon Vera
Sean O'Malley		28.0%
72.0%
+260
-280
+245
-285
Win
Loss		-1.30759-1.29171-1.27193
Junior Dos Santos
Jairzinho Rozenstruik		33.8%
66.2%
+120
-140
+120
-125
Loss
Win		-0.57201-0.59691-0.41281
Daniel Pineda
Herbert Burns		27.5%
72.5%
+250
-260
+240
-270
Win
Loss		-1.26677-1.26517-1.29266
John Dodson
Merab Dvalishvili		35.6%
64.4%
+240
-270
+240
-240
Loss
Win		-0.33155-0.33647-0.44012
Jim Miller
Vinc Pichel		43.1%
56.9%
+105
-123
+110
-125
Loss
Win		-0.63132-0.61676-0.56460
Felice Herrig
Virna Jandiroba		28.5%
71.5%
+265
-294
+265
-282
Loss
Win		-0.30638-0.31180-0.33504
Danny Chavez
TJ Brown		42.8%
57.2%
+125
-135
+130
-135
Win
Loss		-0.83246-0.84362-0.84896
Ashley Yoder
Livinha Souza		30.3%
69.7%
+170
-194
+180
-185
Loss
Win		-0.43889-0.43697-0.36101
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.