UFC MMA Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Fights for October 12, 2024

TimeFightersWinBest
ML

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tatsuro Taira
Brandon Royval 		66.9%
33.1%
-225
+220
-230
+205
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junyong Park
Brad Tavares 		57.7%
42.3%
-170
+155
-175
+155
Rafa Garcia
Grant Dawson 		20.3%
79.7%
+330
-400
+335
-400
Cory McKenna
Julia Polastri 		46.5%
53.5%
+112
-125
+110
-120
Josh Fremd
Abdul Razak Alhassan 		45.8%
54.2%
+138
-158
+140
-155
Alex Morono
Daniel Rodriguez 		45.0%
55.0%
+170
-200
+175
-200
Jared Gooden
Chidi Njokuani 		29.3%
70.7%
+153
-162
+160
-175
Ramazan Temirov
CJ Vergara 		37.5%
62.5%
-315
+265
-300
+260
Niko Price
Themba Gorimbo 		31.7%
68.3%
+265
-315
+315
-320
Volatility Bet Value Active
Junior Tafa
Chris Barnett 		66.4%
33.6%
-385
+325
-400
+350
Lucas Rocha
Clayton Carpenter 		46.0%
54.0%
+175
-194
+170
-195
Patrick Sabatini
Jonathan Pearce 		42.3%
57.7%
+130
-147
+135
-140
Cody Haddon
Dan Argueta 		58.0%
42.0%
-180
+158
-180
+165
Fights for Oct 11, 2024
Fights for Oct 13, 2024

Completed Fights

TimeFightersWinBest
ML		Final
Result		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Chris Daukaus
Parker Porter		50.0%
50.0%
-115
+102
-115
+105
Win
Loss		-0.65410-0.64714-0.69315
Tony Kelley
Kai Kamaka		34.3%
65.7%
+225
-240
+220
-255
Loss
Win		-0.35798-0.35253-0.42006
Aleksei Oleinik
Derrick Lewis		40.8%
59.2%
+175
-194
+175
-193
Loss
Win		-0.43369-0.43459-0.52435
Omari Akhmedov
Chris Weidman		55.4%
44.6%
+135
-150
+135
-145
Loss
Win		-0.53232-0.53929-0.80719
Maki Pitolo
Darren Stewart		39.9%
60.1%
+165
-175
+165
-180
Loss
Win		-0.46283-0.45768-0.50933
Julija Stoliarenko
Yana Kunitskaya		26.2%
73.8%
+140
-155
+135
-150
Loss
Win		-0.51820-0.53232-0.30376
Scott Holtzman
Beneil Dariush		31.8%
68.2%
+195
-220
+200
-210
Loss
Win		-0.38669-0.39742-0.38284
Tim Means
Laureano Staropoli		49.8%
50.2%
+135
-142
+145
-155
Win
Loss		-0.86900-0.91589-0.69669
Joaquin Buckley
Kevin Holland		21.1%
78.9%
+400
-460
+380
-445
Loss
Win		-0.20983-0.21804-0.23690
Alex Munoz
Nasrat Haqparast		30.6%
69.4%
+230
-235
+230
-250
Loss
Win		-0.35778-0.34866-0.36556
Andrew Sanchez
Wellington Turman		35.8%
64.2%
+110
-122
+120
-130
Win
Loss		-0.76934-0.81042-1.02814
Justin Jaynes
Gavin Tucker		44.2%
55.8%
+100
-115
+100
+100
Loss
Win		-0.65886-0.69315-0.58275
Peter Barrett
Youssef Zalal		19.6%
80.4%
+445
-550
+440
-550
Loss
Win		-0.18473-0.18575-0.21878
Ali Al Qaisi
Irwin Rivera		37.8%
62.2%
+150
-157
+150
-155
Loss
Win		-0.50178-0.50431-0.47408
Derek Brunson
Edmen Shahbazyan		30.0%
70.0%
+300
-340
+320
-340
Win
Loss		-1.43284-1.45809-1.20564
Jennifer Maia
Joanne Calderwood		43.8%
56.2%
+175
-185
+167
-180
Win
Loss		-1.02929-1.00559-0.82627
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Season Prediction Results

 FightsRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53731 
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.53761 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.53592
0.00140
0.00169

Predictions Methodology

The projections for all the UFC matches we project above are generated by our underlying rating system (see more at our predictions disclaimer for details). Our proprietary algorithm takes a variety of factors into account that are all predictive in projecting the fight winner. UFC can be particularly challenging in a variety of ways. First, combatants can go months or years without fighting and opponent. Second, some fighters have very few fights under their belts or join UFC from another federation where our data is limited. Analytics always work best when there is more matches and data to analyze so some caution should be used with these projections.

Note that we are an information site, and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only.